Romania's authorities have begun preparations for meetings with international credit rating agencies ahead of scheduled sovereign reviews by Fitch in mid-July and Moody's in early August, with maintaining the country's investment-grade status emerging as the government's top financing priority.

Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare said meetings with rating agencies would begin this week in both physical and online formats.

"It is mandatory to maintain the rating, so that Romania's financing remains open," Nazare wrote in a Facebook post.

According to the minister, Romania has already completed 58% of its annual domestic financing plan and 35% of its external borrowing programme, resulting in an average 49% ratio. He noted that domestic borrowing follows monthly auction schedules, while access to international markets depends on market conditions as well as the timing of European Union funds and financing from international financial institutions.

Nazare's comments came after former finance minister Florin Cîțu argued that the Ministry of Finance's decision to raise RON8.5bn (€1.6bn) from the domestic market in July—almost RON1bn more than in June—could reflect concerns over an impending sovereign downgrade.

"The most likely explanation is that the ministry received negative signals from discussions with rating agencies and is trying to borrow as much as possible before financing becomes more expensive or impossible," Cîțu wrote. He estimated the probability of a downgrade at more than 70%, although this view is not shared by most market analysts.

Romania's funding programme has progressed faster than financing needs. The consolidated budget deficit stood at 1.75% of GDP in January-May, well below the full-year target of 6.2% of GDP, while public financing reached almost half of the year's target.

According to Erste Group estimates, Romania's gross financing requirement for 2026 amounts to approximately RON279bn, based on the government's 6.2% deficit target, implying net bond issuance of around RON128bn. The Austrian banking group expects Romania to issue the equivalent of around €10bn in Eurobonds this year, against external debt redemptions of just over €3bn.

Romania returned to international capital markets in late February, raising €3bn and $2bn through Eurobond issues. 

Erste expects rating agencies to defer Romania decisions 

In a regional report, Erste said it expects rating agencies to refrain from taking major rating actions until Romania presents its 2027 budget, arguing that the current fiscal trajectory remains compatible with preserving investment-grade status.

"We believe that the favourable budget execution so far this year will be sufficient to preserve Romania's investment-grade status for the moment," the report said.

The assessment implicitly shifts attention to the 2027 budget as the next key milestone for sovereign creditworthiness. Although fiscal consolidation pressures are expected to ease next year after two consecutive years of substantial adjustment, further deficit reduction measures will still be required. Their credibility, Erste argued, will depend on sustained political commitment, which remains uncertain amid the country's prolonged political deadlock.

The bank said budget execution during the first five months of the year suggests the 6.2% deficit target is "well within reach" and could even be surpassed on the upside, with the deficit narrowing by more than the 1.7 percentage points compared to 2025, currently envisaged by the authorities.

The report added that favourable fiscal performance has helped stabilise Romanian government bond markets despite continued political uncertainty and a volatile external environment. Ten-year government bond yields have remained broadly stable at around 6.7-6.8%.

"We expect 10-year yields to remain broadly stable around current levels through year-end, with a marginal upward drift, followed by a gradual decline in 2027 in line with the expected BNR policy path," Erste said.