The closure of Poland’s crossings with Belarus on September 12 has rattled transport and logistics companies, which warn that a prolonged halt could drive cargo away from the country, disrupt supply chains and inflate costs for businesses across Europe and Asia.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the suspension earlier in the week, citing national security threats linked to Russian-Belarusian military drills Zapad-2025. 

The shutdown, covering three rail and two road border points, will remain in force until further notice and is not linked to the end of Zapad 2025, the government also said.

PKP Cargo, Poland’s largest rail freight operator, downplayed the immediate fallout but cautioned against a longer blockade. “From the information available, the closure will be temporary and linked to the Zapad manoeuvres,” company executive Julita Sołtysiak told the Polish state newswire PAP. 

“Such a decision will have only a short-lived impact on contract performance. However, an extended shutdown could force a rerouting of container shipments from China to corridors through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea and southern Europe, or via Turkey,” Sołtysiak also said.

The closure affects a corridor carrying 90% of China–EU rail freight, where cargo volumes rose 10.6% in 2024 and the value of goods soared nearly 85% to just over €25bn. The route now makes up 3.7% of total EU-China trade, up from 2.1% a year earlier, and is important for e-commerce groups such as Temu and Shein - although not as much to China’s overall foreign trade.

Industry analysts already report strain on the flow of goods. “Carriers failed to prepare for the sudden closure, which is causing logistical disruptions,” Patryk Szczotka of Warsaw-based think tank Boym Institute told the South China Morning Post. 

“If the closure is short-lived, its effects will be limited. However, a prolonged closure could seriously disrupt the flow of goods, increase logistics costs and weaken Poland’s position as a major transit hub,” Szczotka also said.

The China-Europe Railway Express, a flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, relies heavily on the Brześć–Terespol crossing and the nearby Małaszewicze terminal. At Małaszewicze, goods are transferred from broad-gauge trains to EU-standard tracks, making it an important node on the route linking China with Europe.

Logistics operators said the stoppage has left cargo stranded in Belarus. “There must be an impact on the operation of the China-Europe Railway Express, because trains can’t come in and goods are kept in Belarus,” Lois Mo, a manager at Chinese freight forwarder New Silk Road Intermodal, told the SCMP. 

“Customers are in panic mode now as they may have to shift train cargo orders to maritime transport,” Mo also said.

Polish transport experts stressed that while Belarus is no longer as crucial as before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the disruption remains significant. 

“For most firms the Belarus route is not dominant, but for carriers specialising in eastern markets or servicing the China-Europe railway, the consequences can be substantial,” Anna Majowicz, head of the Polish Road Transport Institute, told Money.pl, a Polish business news website.

“If the closure is short-lived, losses can be minimised. In the longer run, companies will have to redirect traffic through Lithuania, Latvia or southern routes, which means higher costs and longer delivery times,” Majowicz also said.

Marcin Wolak, chief executive of GPW Logistics, also warned the halt would hit operations in Małaszewicze. “It affects not only deliveries but also transport companies handling goods reloaded onto trucks in Małaszewicze. It may certainly impact their financial standing,” Wolak told Money.pl.

He added that Poland itself risked bearing the heaviest losses, as much of the road transport to and from Belarus was run by Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian firms. Longer alternative routes could impose costs that some clients will not cover.

Belarus has historically been central to trade flows between Asia and Europe. Around 80% of overland exports from Commonwealth of Independent States countries to Western Europe pass through its territory. The Brest rail junction, one of the largest in Central Europe, has long been a linchpin of freight movements between Russia, Central Asia and the EU.

Before the war in Ukraine, Belarus handled some of the busiest east–west road corridors. In 2020, 1.06mn freight vehicles crossed the Polish-Belarusian border, according to the Polish Road Transport Institute. At the time, road haulage accounted for more than half of Belarus’s total freight volumes, rising to nearly 100% in some regions.

Traffic has shrunk since, but volumes remain substantial. Customs data cited by PAP show that in the first half of 2025, 105,700 trucks entered Poland through Koroszczyn while 103,300 departed for Belarus. Rail shipments at Terespol included 66,400 incoming containers, 73% of which originated directly from China, with goods ranging from electronics to footwear and toys. On the outbound side, 28,700 containers left Poland for Belarus. 

Poland is also a leading EU trader with Belarus. In 2023, Polish exports to the neighbour topped PLN12bn (€2.8bn), according to the Centre for Eastern Studies, a Polish state-owned analysis firm. Transit routes through Belarus, especially the Brześć–Małaszewicze rail corridor, have remained vital for containerised freight under the New Silk Road initiative.

The closure has also underscored the geopolitical stakes. Also diminished because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Zapad exercises were directly aimed at Poland and the European Union, the Polish government said.

China and Poland sought to reassure businesses earlier this week. Following a meeting of the two countries’ intergovernmental committee in Warsaw, the foreign ministers Radosław Sikorski and Wang Yi said they were committed to ensuring the safety and accessibility of the China-Europe Railway Express. 

“This issue is shaped by political decisions on connectivity with China and Russia,” Uwe Leuschner, chief executive of German consultancy Luxx Service, told the SCMP. He estimated that every four-to five-day delay could cost shippers an additional $20,000 in rental expenses for trains and equipment.