Headline inflation in the Philippines is expected to have accelerated in March from 2.4% in February, with economists in the country pointing to broad-based price increases driven by higher oil, electricity and food costs, The Philippine Star reports.

Analysts’ estimates range from 3.5% to 4.3%, signalling intensifying supply-side pressures that could in time push inflation towards the upper bound of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s 2–4% target range, the report adds. Any reading near the top of the forecasts would be seen as marking the fastest pace since July 2024, when inflation in the country reached 4.4%. Official data are due for release on April 7.

According to The Star, Nicholas Mapa, chief economist at Metrobank, expects inflation to touch 4.3%, noting that the outcome and evolving expectations will be central to the BSP’s policy stance at its forthcoming meeting later in the month.

Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist at UnionBank meanwhile forecasts 4.2%, citing base effects and higher food prices, particularly rice and staples. He highlighted tighter domestic supply and lingering import costs, alongside rising transport and utility prices linked to global oil trends. In addition, persistent supply pressures risk feeding into second-round effects, including higher fares, electricity costs and wage adjustments, suggesting a more cautious policy approach.

BPI lead economist Jun Neri, however, estimates inflation somewhat lower, at 3.9%, pointing to stronger pass-through from oil prices. He warned that the current oil shock appears more pronounced than in previous episodes, with rising fuel costs beginning to influence transport prices and inflation expectations. Risks include inflation exceeding 4% in the near term and potentially averaging above 5% for the year if oil remains above $90 per barrel.

The Philippines’ BSP held its policy rate at 4.25% at a recent off-cycle meeting and is set to review policy again on April 23.