The recent mutual recognition between the Republic of Somaliland and the State of Israel marks a decisive moment in Somaliland’s long but oftentime frustrating pursuit of international legitimacy. After over three decades of de-facto independence, democratic governance and relative stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions, Somaliland has now secured formal recognition from a sovereign state with considerable geopolitical weight, impressive technological sophistication and security reach.

This is not a symbolic gesture, however. It represents an inflection point with the potential to reshape Somaliland’s very political standing as well as economic trajectory and even security environment in the Horn of Africa.

Yet this recognition comes amidst a highly charged international context. Israel remains among the most geopolitically contested states in the world and faces entrenched hostility across much of the Middle East and parts of the Muslim world. Increasingly too, Tel Aviv faces malevolence from segments of European public opinion, particularly in relation to the recent conflict in Gaza.

By aligning itself with Israel at this moment, Somaliland thus inherits both opportunity and exposure. While recognition opens diplomatic and strategic doors that have long remained closed, that same recognition also places Somaliland firmly in a web of regional rivalries and potential security risks. This is particularly true in the sensitive Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab corridor.

To understand the significance of this development, it is necessary to situate it within Somaliland’s own long-standing quest for recognition. Since reclaiming its sovereignty, 35 years ago in 1991 following the collapse of the Somali Republic, Somaliland has functioned as its own self-governing and largely peaceful political entity. It has held multiple competitive elections in that time while maintaining internal stability and building functioning institutions, all in the absence of any formal international recognition.

As a result, a combination of geopolitical inertia with the African Union’s reluctance to reopen questions of borders, and the wider international community’s preference for preserving the status quo has left Somaliland diplomatically isolated.

To this end, Israel’s decision breaks this deadlock. It challenges the assumption that Somaliland’s case is permanently frozen and demonstrates that recognition can emerge when political realities intersect with strategic interests. For Hargeisa, the burgeoning capital of Somaliland, this is not merely a limited diplomatic success; it establishes a precedent that others may in turn, one day follow.

The logic underpinning the Somaliland–Israel relationship is clear. Somaliland’s territory lies along the Gulf of Aden, close to the Bab al-Mandab strait, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints through which a substantial share of global trade and energy flows. For Israel, whose commercial and security interests extend into the Red Sea, this new partnership with Somaliland offers improved maritime awareness and an expanded regional footprint.

For Somaliland, the relationship elevates its geopolitical relevance, transforming it from a peripheral and largely unrecognised entity into an important regional actor whose cooperation carries weight in international security calculations. This heightened relevance may, in turn, encourage broader engagement from states seeking reliable partners in the Horn of Africa.

Security cooperation forms a central pillar of this emerging relationship of course. Israel’s reputation for advanced intelligence, defence technology and counter-terrorism expertise is well established and globally renowned. Somaliland, operating in a region affected by extremist violence and piracy now stands to benefit from intelligence sharing with Israel, training and capacity-building initiatives. Such cooperation can only strengthen Somaliland’s deterrence posture against destabilising forces. At the same time, it introduces a degree of risk though, as closer ties with Israel may render Somaliland a target for those regional actors hostile to Israel.

Beyond security, the relationship carries notable economic promise too. Israel’s strengths in sectors including but not limited to technology, agriculture, water management, renewable energy and innovation align closely with Somaliland’s development needs. Targeted investment in addition to technical cooperation and knowledge transfer could significantly help address structural challenges such as water scarcity and food insecurity. Youth unemployment and an underdeveloped infrastructure would also benefit. Whatsmore, this recognition by Israel may prompt other states with pragmatic foreign policies to reassess their own positions on Somaliland recognition. 

These benefits, however, are not automatic. They depend on institutional readiness and transparent governance as well as coherent economic planning. Without these foundations, recognition risks remaining symbolic rather than more transformative.

The regional and international implications of the Somaliland–Israel relationship are complex. Many Arab and Muslim-majority states continue to maintain at best strained or at worst openly adversarial relations with the state of Israel. Somaliland therefore now finds itself navigating a delicate diplomatic landscape. This landscape is a place in which engagement with Israel must be balanced carefully against relations by the Gulf, the Arab world and also Africa.

This challenge is further intensified by the emotional and political sensitivities surrounding Gaza. Somaliland’s leadership will need to communicate clearly that its foreign policy is grounded in its own national interest, sovereignty and peaceful engagement, rather than any ideological alignment against any given people or faith.

Regional dynamics further complicate the picture for Hargeisa. Somalia is now likely to interpret Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a direct challenge to its claim over the territory, potentially intensifying diplomatic efforts against Somaliland in multilateral forums. Djibouti, another key actor along the Red Sea coast, may also view Somaliland’s rising profile in the region with a degree of caution. Beyond our immediate neighbourhood, external powers such as Turkey and Egypt - both deeply invested in Red Sea security issues and Bab al-Mandab geopolitics - may themselves perceive closer Somaliland–Israel cooperation as a threat to their own strategic regional interests. Meanwhile, Turkey’s strong ties with Somalia and Egypt’s concerns over maritime routes in the area could translate into political pressure or perhaps indirect destabilisation.

Recognition brings visibility, and with it visibility brings vulnerability. Because of this, Somaliland now faces heightened exposure to asymmetric threats in addition to proxy conflicts, diplomatic isolation campaigns and even potential economic pressure from states opposed to Israel. If these issues are poorly managed, they could outweigh the short-term gains of recognition.

This moment therefore demands intelligent prudence. Somaliland must diversify its diplomatic engagements further, ensuring that relations with Israel complement rather than in any way replace other ties with Africa, the Gulf and Europe. Recognition as it has happened should be framed as a legal and historical matter rooted in Somaliland’s sovereignty. It should not be framed as an ideological realignment of sorts.

Strengthening internal institutions - particularly in terms of security coordination, foreign policy and economic governance - is all the more essential. Equally important is proactive regional diplomacy, aimed at reassuring neighbours that Somaliland seeks cooperation rather than confrontation.

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is a landmark with far-reaching implications. It offers new avenues for the political legitimacy of Somaliland coupled to opportunities for economic development and security cooperation. At the same time, however, while it simultaneously exposes Somaliland to regional rivalries and global tensions, the challenge now lies in how this opportunity is managed.

A door has been opened. The responsibility now rests with Somaliland to step through it with confidence, caution and clarity of purpose.

Liban Yusuf Osman is the former Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic of Somaliland