OPEC+ left December production targets unchanged on November 1, deferring any fresh policy move into next year as the group grapples with Iran war export disruptions.

The decision was taken in an online meeting by seven core members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – according to a statement from OPEC carried by Reuters. Gulf producers have been clawing back exports hit by months of conflict, but most are still pumping well below their quotas.

OPEC+ groups OPEC with allied producers led by Russia. For several years, only the seven – plus the UAE until it left OPEC in May – have taken part in the monthly output calls. The wider 21-country alliance is due to convene on November 29, when analysts expect the 2027 quota framework to be set.

“Today’s decision was the easy one,” Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, told Reuters. “The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”

Brent crude settled near $118 a barrel on October 30, up more than 2% on the day and the highest close since April, as traders positioned for a potential escalation of the Iran war after the US midterm elections.

The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have flagged the risk of a supply overhang in 2027 should Gulf barrels return to normal flows.

“OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027,” Leon added. “The group has to plan around huge uncertainty over the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of the surplus that could emerge once disrupted barrels return.”

The seven producers spent much of 2026 lifting targets and in September completed the phased unwinding of a 1.65mn bpd cut first agreed in 2023. Quotas were left flat for October and November at earlier meetings. A separate tranche of roughly 2mn bpd in cuts, covering most members, remains in place until end-2026.

Before fixing 2027 baselines – the reference levels that will govern future quotas and the pace at which remaining curbs are unwound – the group must finish a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter, sources have told Reuters.

The Iran war has set back capacity-expansion projects across the Middle East, muddying forecasts of future output potential, Reuters reported in October. The capacity review is now expected to wrap up by mid-November.