Mauritius has overtaken South Africa to become the most investable African market in Bloomberg Economics’ 2026 scorecard, while Nigeria recorded the biggest improvement among the 19 countries assessed.

The “Africa Investment Risk-o-Meter”, published in Bloomberg Businessweek’s 2026 Investor’s Guide to Africa, compares 19 markets across five measures: economic strength, fiscal strength, institutions and governance, infrastructure and external vulnerability. Bloomberg standardises underlying indicators including growth, debt, political risk and foreign reserves into Z-scores so that different measures can be compared on a common scale, before weighting them to produce the overall score.

The scores measure countries relative to the other markets in the sample rather than absolute investment risk. Broadly, a score around zero represents the middle of the group, positive scores indicate stronger or lower-risk performance relative to peers and negative scores weaker or higher-risk performance. The figures are not percentages: Mauritius’s 0.6 score, for example, does not mean it is 60% safer or more investable than another market.

Mauritius recorded the highest overall score at 0.6, narrowly ahead of South Africa on 0.5. Egypt, Ghana, Botswana and Ivory Coast each scored 0.3, followed by Morocco on 0.2 and Nigeria on 0.1. Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya were all assessed at zero.

The component readings use the same relative scale. Mauritius scored 1.7 for institutions and governance, putting it well above the group average on that measure, compared with 0.7 for infrastructure, zero for fiscal strength and -0.1 for external vulnerability. Bloomberg attributed South Africa’s loss of the top position to a moderately weaker growth outlook.

Mauritius’s top ranking comes as the country prepares to host the October 7 launch of the African Union-backed Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA), which is intended to provide an African assessment of sovereign and corporate credit risk. Mauritius is also one of only three African sovereigns holding an investment-grade rating from at least one of the three major international rating agencies, with Moody’s rating the country Baa3.

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Nigeria was the biggest climber, rising four places to eighth as its economic and fiscal strength improved and its external vulnerability eased. Its scorecard nevertheless showed continued weakness in institutions and governance and infrastructure, underscoring uneven performance across the five measures.

Nigeria’s improvement follows a series of macroeconomic reforms including exchange-rate liberalisation, the removal of fuel subsidies and fiscal measures. The World Bank has said the reforms strengthened government revenues and foreign exchange reserves while improving macroeconomic stability and policy credibility, although infrastructure constraints and the social costs of adjustment remain substantial.

Whether Nigeria’s improved risk profile translates into large new investment commitments remains uneven, particularly in capital-intensive sectors. Fiscal and contractual reforms have advanced major deepwater oil projects, but the Bonga Southwest/Aparo development has not yet reached a final investment decision, providing one test of whether stronger macroeconomic indicators feed through into project-level commitments.

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South Africa slipped one place after a moderately weaker growth outlook, despite improvements in electricity availability and some easing of logistics constraints. Its investment outlook remains weighed down by weak growth, high unemployment, elevated public debt and infrastructure bottlenecks, with reform execution remaining a key determinant of whether stronger power supply translates into higher investment.

Botswana moved in the opposite direction to Nigeria, falling two places as its growth outlook deteriorated. The country still scored strongly on institutions and governance and infrastructure, but weaker economic and fiscal readings weighed on its overall ranking.

The decline coincides with a prolonged downturn in Botswana’s diamond industry that has weakened government revenue and depleted fiscal buffers. Moody’s downgraded Botswana to Baa2 from Baa1 on September 25, citing weaker diamond revenue, lower-than-expected Southern African Customs Union receipts and disappointing proceeds from new tax measures.

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At the lower end of Bloomberg’s table, Namibia scored -0.1, while Ethiopia, Zambia, Angola and Uganda were all on -0.2. Senegal scored -0.3, the Democratic Republic of Congo -0.5 and Mozambique -0.8.

The lower rankings do not necessarily imply an absence of investment. DRC, Angola, Zambia and Mozambique continue to attract major strategic projects, including the Lobito Corridor linking Angola, DRC and Zambia and the resumed Mozambique LNG development, highlighting how resources, infrastructure needs and individual project economics can outweigh broader country-risk indicators for some investors.

Bloomberg Economics assessed 19 African countries, roughly one-third of the continent’s states. Two-thirds of those rated are among Africa’s largest economies, while the remainder were selected for characteristics including commodity resources, financial hubs and business-tourism activity. The ranking therefore compares only the countries in the scorecard and should not be read as a comprehensive ranking of all 54 African states.