Latvia approaches its October 3 parliamentary election with early turnout above 5.6%, shifting party ratings and a coalition dispute over constitutional changes.

Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, the election will determine the balance of power in the next parliament (Saeima) and the bargaining needed to form a government. With seven parties projected to enter parliament, voter participation and shifts in support could influence coalition options, after disagreements over constitutional proposals have exposed tensions within the current administration.

By September 30, more than 83,000 citizens had voted in advance, representing 5.35% of eligible voters. Including 4,907 postal voting applications, which the Central Election Commission counts towards participation, turnout reached 5.66%, or over 88,000 people, Latvian news agency LETA and public broadcaster LSM.lv reported in their September election coverage.

An SKDS poll published on September 25 placed United List first on 14.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from August. Sovereign Power/New Latvians followed on 9.4%, after losing 2.4 points, narrowly ahead of Latvia First on 9.2%, LETA and LSM.lv reported.

The Progressives fell 2.6 points to 6.2%, their lowest SKDS rating since March. The National Alliance rose 1.1 points to 5.6%, while the Union of Greens and Farmers gained two points to reach 4.8%. New Unity edged up to 4.3%.

The clearest security divide is between Sovereign Power/New Latvians and the parties backing continued support for Ukraine and stronger Nato defence. On domestic policy, the Progressives stand out for social liberalism and green investment; the National Alliance for language and immigration restrictions; United List for budget discipline; and the Greens and Farmers for agricultural support and explicit benefit targets. This is a synthesis of their stated pledges, rather than a judgement about implementation.

Notably, Sovereign Power/New Latvians campaigns against financing military aid to Ukraine and higher defence spending, arguing that resources should address Latvia’s domestic problems. Critics describe Sovereign Power, led by Julija Stepanenko, as pro-Russian.

Despite some headline ratings falling below 5%, SKDS estimated that all seven parties would clear the parliamentary threshold. The survey covered 2,035 adult citizens between September 4 and 16; 14.9% said they would not vote.

Latvia’s current ruling coalition faced tensions after some United List MPs backed opposition-proposed constitutional amendments on gender and marriage, breaching an agreement with coalition partner New Unity requiring unanimous support for such initiatives.

There is no doubt that defence will be the main priority of a new government. Latvia’s 2026 defence budget is €2.16bn, equivalent to 4.73% of GDP under the Defence Ministry’s updated estimate using the March 2026 GDP forecast.

Currently, Latvia is governed by a four-party coalition led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, comprising United List, New Unity, the National Alliance and the Union of Greens and Farmers. Approved on May 28, 2026, the government replaced Evika Silina’s administration.