The opposition Tisza Party reached its largest lead over the governing party to date in a Median poll published on HVG360 on February 25, less than 50 days before Hungary's general election. Fidesz downplayed the finding, and in a post, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called the pollster, Endre Hahn, "a good humorist". 

According to the poll, Tisza leads the ruling conservative-nationalist Fidesz by 11pp among the total population (42-31%) and by 20 points among decided voters (55-35%). Median measured further gains for Tisza from January to February, while Fidesz’s support declined slightly for the first time since June last year.

The survey indicates significantly higher turnout certainty among Tisza supporters (97%) than among Fidesz voters (85%), a gap that has widened compared with January.

Among smaller parties, radical right-wing Our Homeland (Mi Hazank Mozgalom) stands at 7% among party voters, its strongest result in Medián polls since November 2024. Support for the joke party, Two-tailed Dogs, declined slightly, while the social-liberal Democratic Coalition (DK) recorded a modest increase, with both parties remaining below the 5% threshold. The proportion of undecided voters remained unchanged at 19%.

Some 43% of respondents believe Tisza is more likely to win the April 12 election, compared with 41% who expect a Fidesz victory, a reversal last seen in September. A majority (56%) said they would prefer a change of government, while 37% would keep the incumbent administration.

Medián, which has a track record of accurate pre-election forecasts, noted that its results differ from some recent polls. Hours later, the pro-government institute Nezpont published its own survey, showing Fidesz leading by a few percentage points.

Political analyst Gabor Torok, citing Median, said the poll shows a lead of 800,000 for Tisza, pointing toward a potential two-thirds majority in parliament if the trend holds. Medián analysts noted that such a large lead is unlikely to be overturned.

The poll also shows a shift in voter expectations: for the first time in months, slightly more respondents now anticipate a Fidesz loss. Analysts say such perceptions could influence undecided voters in the remaining six weeks, contributing to the parties’ frequent claims of leading.

Four years ago, two-thirds of people expected a Fidesz victory, including 40% of voters supporting the opposition joint list. The ruling party secured 53% of the popular vote, the highest since 2010, winning its fourth supermajority in parliament.

Torok also posted the latest Polymarket poll, showing Tisza leader Peter Magyar leading Orban 57-39%, reflecting users' financial bets on candidates. Polymarket has been officially blocked in Hungary since January, accessible only via VPN, following regulatory action citing "unauthorised gambling". Opposition voices argue that prediction markets provide useful insight into public sentiment and that their restrictions limit access to that information.

Political analyst Szabolcs Dull said that candidates in the lead rarely challenge pollsters publicly. Fidesz-affiliated commentators dismissed the latest poll as misleading, while the Tisza Party welcomed the result and said it would give the opposition a two-thirds majority.

Péter Magyar said he is ramping up the campaign nationwide on what he called the "most important" country tour. Tisza will hold a mass rally on March 15, a national holiday, alongside Fidesz, which is also calling on its supporters to stage a last massive mobilisation ahead of the election. Magyar also warned that the ruling party would likely unleash its most malicious and dishonest attacks and smear campaigns.

The Hungarian forint strengthened to a two-and-a-half-year high against the euro after reports showed the opposition leading the ruling party by 20 points, potentially securing a two-thirds parliamentary majority, according to economic blog Vakmajom (Blind Monkey). A sweeping Tisza victory could facilitate the dismantling of the authoritarian regime, help restore the rule of law, unlock €20bn of frozen EU funds, and pave the way for euro adoption. Traders are already pricing in a possible government change in the next three to six months, reflecting expectations of a major political shift, it added.