The Kremlin has warned that a potential US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would deliver a direct shock to global markets, even as Moscow positions itself as both an energy anchor and a diplomatic intermediary in a rapidly widening crisis.

Russia also cautiously welcomes the victory of Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar in the Hungarian elections, provided he maintains “pragmatic” relations with Russia. On Ukraine, the Kremlin said nothing has changed and its demands that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy give up control of the Donbas remain unchanged.

Hormuz

Addressing the ballooning energy crisis that is anticipated by the imposition of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipping leaving the Strait of Hormuz, speaking in Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the economic implications of disrupting one of the world’s most critical chokepoints were largely unavoidable.

“A US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will most likely have a negative impact on international markets,” he said. “This can be assumed with a high degree of certainty.”

Since the two-week ceasefire was imposed on April 8 followed by the failed Islamabad Accord talks on April 12, over a dozen ships have used the standstill to traverse the straits. On April 13 two Chinese-flagged ships carrying oil loaded in the UAE successfully challenged the blockade by leaving the Gulf amidst high tensions. The Trump administration specifically bans the exit of tankers carrying oil loaded in an Iranian port and exempts all shipping carrying oil and gas from the other states in the region. The majority of tankers are travelling to China, but some Russian ships have been reportedly also attempting the passage.

As IntelliNews reported, the blockade won’t work as China will continue to export Gulf oil to keep its economy running and has consistently ignored the US sanctions regimes, first on Ukraine and now on Iran. If the US attempts to stop a Chinese flagged ship using its navy then under international maritime law that is an act of war.

The Kremlin also signalled caution on the operational reality behind Washington’s proposal. “Many details here remain unclear and confusing, so I would refrain from making any substantive comments at this time,” Peskov added.

The ambiguity matters. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil flows. Any attempt to restrict traffic is less about sanctioning Iran and more about constraining supply — a distinction markets tend to price abruptly.

Moscow is using the moment to reinforce its dual role: supplier and broker.

“Russia is and will remain one of the world's most reliable energy suppliers. In this regard, Russia’s role cannot be overstated,” Peskov said, a pointed reminder as Europe continues to recalibrate its energy mix.

At the same time, the Kremlin has kept a diplomatic channel open on Iran’s nuclear programme. In comments to the press on April 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to take the Iranian stock of 400kg of highly enriched uranium for safekeeping, as a potential compromise solution to US demands that Iran give up the stock as part of any peace deal.

“This proposal was voiced by President Putin in his contacts with both the US and regional states. It remains on the table, but has not been accepted,” Peskov said.

Russia is ready to provide “any good services that will contribute to de-escalating tensions around Iran”, he added.

Hungary and a pragmatic Europe

The Kremlin has just lost one of its closest allies in Europe after the defeat of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the weekend’s elections in Hungary. The Kremlin took a stoical position welcoming the election of Magyar, provided he continues to follow a “pragmatic” foreign policy towards Russia.

“Hungary has made its choice. We respect that choice,” Peskov said following the country’s parliamentary elections. “We expect to continue our highly pragmatic contacts with the new Hungarian leadership.”

In initial remarks following his victory, Magyar has said that Hungary will continue to import Russian oil and gas under the same terms as with the Orban administration. However, he also said that Hungary will diversify its supplies, but “that will take time.”

While Magyar is cut from the same nationalistic cloth as Orban, he appears to be trying to position Budapest in the middle ground that moves Hungary closer to Europe, but maintains practical economic cooperation with the Kremlin, especially on energy matters.

The Kremlin also expects continuity rather than disruption. “Of course, this will be beneficial for both Moscow and Budapest,” Peskov said, noting signals from Hungary that it wants to maintain constructive dialogue.

More broadly, Moscow is keeping the door open despite strained ties. “We are interested in building good relations with Hungary, just as we are with all European countries,” Peskov said. “We know that, unfortunately, there is no reciprocity to speak of when it comes to European countries at this point, but Russia is open to dialogue.”

For now, the message is wait-and-see. “We probably need to be patient and see what happens.”

Ukraine remains on a separate track

The Kremlin drew a clear line between European politics and the war in Ukraine.

“I don’t think this has anything to do with the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These are probably separate issues, so I don’t see any connection here,” Peskov said.

Russia reiterated its familiar stance: negotiations preferred, but not at any cost. “We are committed to achieving our goals in Ukraine. We would prefer to achieve these objectives through political and diplomatic negotiations, but until such talks yield results, the special military operation will continue.”

He criticised continued European military support for Kyiv. “Any actions that fuel the militaristic ambitions of the Kiev regime do not contribute to finding a peaceful settlement,” he said, adding that Europe is “not hiding” its intention to continue backing Ukraine.

Asia pivot gathers pace

Alongside the European track, Moscow is leaning further into Asia. As IntelliNews reported, one of the unintended consequences of the Iran war has been to push the CRINK alliance (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) closer together, which have stepped up their military support of Tehran.

Ironically, the Iran conflict has also deepened divisions between the US and Europe, where leaders that have been trying to flatter US President Donald Trump to rescue the transatlantic “special relationship” are increasingly giving up and actively criticising the US for its war of aggression in the Middle East.

In the meantime the Kremlin is capitalising on the shock and insecurity that US belligerence has caused amongst the already sceptical Global South leadership to continue building up the non-western alliances just as the BRICS+ and G20.

Putin is due to meet Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, which joined the BRICS+ a year ago after dithering for two years. As the fourth most populous country and biggest Muslim community in the world, as well as a major commodities producer in Asia, the addition of Indonesia to the BRICS+ group was a major landmark development for the growing non-aligned movement.

Peskov said there is a “very diverse cooperation” and strengthening ties between Russia and Indonesia’s leader. “Putin meets with him often. They have very good personal and business relations,” he said, adding that trade between the two countries has grown by more than 12%.