Kazakhstan has forecast that irrigation water shortages will this year hit four of its regions.

Reduced river inflows from upstream Kyrgyzstan and lower reservoir levels will take a toll, according to Kazakh Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov has said, as reported by Vlast.

Fears that Central Asia could face severe and worsening water deficits in years ahead have intensified with Kyrgyzstan leaning on fellow Central Asian states to provide extra funds to help it pay for effective water provision and storage infrastructure and other worries such as the major Qosh Tepa irrigation canal being built by the Taliban in Afghanistan, which will draw away a major percentage of one of the major rivers, the Amu Darya, that provide water to Central Asia.

Nurzhigitov said the regions of Kyzylorda, Turkestan, Zhambyl and parts of Almaty Region, where water supplies depend heavily on the Syr Darya, Shu and Talas river basins, should prepare for irrigation water shortages.

Nurzhigitov told a government meeting that reservoir levels in neighbouring countries along the Syr Darya basin are currently 1.6bn cubic metres (bcm) lower than during the same period of last year.

“Given that these reservoirs will operate in accumulation mode during the summer period, the expected inflow into Kazakhstan will amount to 70% of the long-term average norm, which corresponds to low-water conditions and creates significant risks of water shortages in the middle and lower reaches of the basin,” he said.

Authorities also warned of possible shortages near the Kurty reservoir in Almaty Region. The reservoir currently contains 64mn cubic metres (mcm) of water, 38 mcm less than a year ago.

The minister said similar conditions were developing in the Shu and Talas basins. 

Nurzhigitov said particular concerns were growing over water levels at the Kirov and Orto-Tokoy reservoirs in Kyrgyzstan. The Kirov reservoir is currently filled to 78% of capacity, down 89 mcm year on year, while the Orto-Tokoy reservoir stands at 83% of capacity, 79 mcm lower than a year earlier. This has prompted a reduction in the 2026 water usage limit for the basin from 1.2 bcm to 900 mcm. 

Due to the current hydrological conditions, Kazakhstan has set irrigation water usage limits at 3.2 bcm for Kyzylorda Region and 3.8 bcm for Turkestan Region.

Despite the pressures, the minister said the overall situation regarding water accumulation in domestic reservoirs remained stable.

The water resources and irrigation ministry expects the 2026 vegetation season to be affected by the lingering consequences of drought conditions experienced in 2025.

Kazakhstan is among the world’s water-scarce countries. Water covers only 2.8% of the country’s territory, while around two-thirds consists of arid and semi-arid zones. A substantial share of Kazakhstan’s water resources originates outside its borders, making the country highly dependent on transboundary river flows.