The Iranian regime is reaching out to the regular army to help suppress two-week-old mass demonstrations that have spread to the entire country, but can’t be sure soldiers won’t defect and join the demonstrations.

The theocracy of the Islamic Republic has been overwhelmed by the sheer number of regular Iranians that have taken to the streets. With an estimated 1.5mn-1.8mn demonstrators on the street in over 100 towns and cities across the entire country, Iran is close to the tipping point that could see the regime fall.

There is a rule-of-thumb in protests that if the number of people on the street is more than 3% of the entire population, the government typically falls. With around 2% of the population protesting, Iran not quite there, but it is close to this point.

According to the latest data from Human Rights organisation Hrana, the deaths of 544 people during the protests have been confirmed, and dozens of additional cases remain under review. More than 10,681 individuals have also been transferred to prisons following arrest. Protests have taken place at 585 locations across the country, in 186 cities, spanning all 31 provinces on th4e fifteenth day of protests on January 11.

“Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a televised interview, described protesters as “terrorists,” called for “decisive” action by security forces, and claimed that protesters were “taking orders” from the United States and Israel. This framing has emerged at the same time as numerous reports and images circulating on social media showing violence and direct gunfire against protesters,” Hrana reported.

As bne IntelliNews opined in an editorial, the end of the revolution may not end in regime change, but in changes within the ruling structure. The Revolution has its loyal supporters and the opposition remains fragmented and essentially leaderless. There is a possibility, say analysts, that a new leader may emerge from the collapsing Islamic Republic and retake control, but keep the existing government structure intact.

Protests started on December 28 when shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran shuttered their stores for the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution after the rial, the national currency, went into a tailspin. Since then the exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi has poured petrol on the fire with a call on the people to take to the streets and for the military to change sides and “protect the people” on January 8 that saw the demonstrations escalate dramatically.

As the protests continue and the regime’s control over the situation slips, it appears that it is preparing to unleash a much more violent crackdown, says Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a note on January 11.

“The regime may have started to frame protesters as “terrorists” to increase security forces’ willingness to use lethal force against protesters and reduce the risk of defections,” ISW said.

The regime’s potential deployment of the regular military, the Artesh, would further indicate that the protests are challenging security forces’ ability and willingness to repress the unrest.

The Artesh is the regular armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Formally, it is called the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh-e Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran) and is the successor to Iran’s pre-1979 national military. It operates alongside, but separately from, the elite and loyal Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Artesh is responsible primarily for territorial defence, conventional warfare, and border security. However, it is not trained to deal with internal unrest or crowd control.

The regular army is generally less ideological and more representative of the Iranian population than the IRGC, says ISW, which increases the risk its members could defect.

“The deployment of the Artesh, which is not trained to control civil unrest, would also indicate that Iranian security forces may face bandwidth constraints, given that the regime would likely not deploy the Artesh unless it absolutely had to,” ISW said. “It has historically played a limited role in suppressing domestic unrest.”

With every single one of Iran’s 31 provinces now in open rebellion, in the meantime, the regime is relying on IRGC forces to quell the crowds with only limited effect. Various reports from around the country confirm that IRGC units have been deployed in various cities and these units have opened on crowds using live ammunition. However, with the internet blackout, details are scarce, and confirmation of the reports is not possible.

As bne IntelliNews reported, by January 10 some 200 people were reported killed in the unrest since it began on December 28. However, unconfirmed local reports put the number at least ten-times higher as security forces opened up on large crowds with indiscriminate machine gun fire. Videos seen by IntelliNews this weekend confirmed large numbers of bodies at Kahrizak Forensic Medicine Centre in south of Tehran, with grieving families searching to identify relatives amongst the dead, according to reports on January 11. Iran has a long history of using violence to suppress protests ever since the original Iranian Revolution in 1979.

ISW says there are indications that the ongoing protests are “challenging the Islamic Republic’s ability and willingness of Iranian security forces to crack down on the protests,” ISW reports.

The IRGC Intelligence Organization that is the backbone of the mullah’s hold on power, released a statement on January 10 that it is “dealing with possible acts of abandonment.”

“This statement suggests that some Iranian security forces may have already defected or that the regime is very concerned about this possibility,” ISW said.

A Law Enforcement Command (LEC) officer from an unspecified Kurdish-majority city in northwestern Iran told TIME on January 7 that Iranian security forces disagree over whether a “massive” regime crackdown on protests will contain the protests or incite further unrest.

The officer told TIME that all of the officers at his station believe the regime is collapsing. The officer added that he works in the LEC for money, “not to kill people.”

Anecdotal reports suggest some of the security forces are switching sides, but the reports remain sporadic and unconfirmed. A Kurdish human rights organization previously reported on January 8 that the regime had arrested “dozens” of security force members in Kermanshah City who refused to fire on protesters, ISW reports.

Other anti-regime groups may be trying to take advantage of the chaos. ISW reports on Kurdish militant activity in northwestern Iran. The Kurdistan National Guard announced on January 9 that its “Zagros Tornado units” attacked an IRGC base in Nourabad, Lorestan Province, and injured three IRGC members. ISW couldn’t verify this attack and it is unclear if the Kurdistan National Guard has ties to other Kurdish anti-regime groups that operate in northwestern Iran, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)-linked Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK). Iranian state media outlet Mehr News separately reported on January 10 that Iranian authorities killed a group of PJAK fighters who were attempting to enter Iran from Iraq.

US officials have had preliminary meetings about taking military action against the Iranian regime on January 10. US President Donald Trump warned Iranian leadership on January 9 that the United States would get involved if the regime fires at protesters and Trump repeated the threats in a social media statement on January 10, stating that the United States is ready to help Iranian protesters achieve “FREEDOM.”