Iranian travellers are being pushed onto overland routes through Turkey and Armenia and towards hubs in Russia and China as US sanctions sever the country's international aviation links and foreign airlines suspend services to Iran.

The new US restrictions set to kick in tomorrow dismantle a network built on Istanbul, Dubai and Doha for connections to Europe, North America and Asia, and the damage now extends well beyond Iranian carriers. Turkish Airlines, Emirates, Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines and Qatar Airways have all suspended services to Iran, removing the foreign capacity that would ordinarily have absorbed passengers displaced from sanctioned Iranian airlines.

Turkish Airlines, long the most important foreign carrier for Iranian passengers, has removed Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Shiraz and Tabriz from its schedule until at least March 28, 2027. A company representative said no Iran flights were scheduled before then and that a March resumption was not guaranteed.

Emirates has also stopped flying to Tehran following strikes on the UAE, with no resumption likely any time soon. European majors including Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines have also suspended Iran services until at least October 24. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways, the airline that was the backbone of sanctions on Iran, has suspended its Iranian routes citing airspace restrictions, with a tentative return on November 29 that remains conditional. Not a good sign for winter.

Doubling down on sanctions 

The withdrawal of foreign capacity coincides with a sharp escalation in US pressure on Iran's own carriers. The US Treasury on September 8 sanctioned 27 previously undesignated Iranian airlines, extending restrictions across the country's remaining fleet. The measures also hit companies and intermediaries supporting Iranian aviation and revoked authorisations that had allowed some foreign airlines to operate US-origin aircraft into Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iranian airlines would be shut out of international operations from September 23, with foreign firms providing fuel, landing services, ticket sales and other support at risk of US penalties. Mahan Air, already sanctioned, has suspended flights to Istanbul, Ankara and Muscat.

The Islamic Republic's flag-carrier Iran Air said it had received no official notification from civil aviation authorities in Turkey, Azerbaijan or Iraq ordering it to halt flights to Istanbul, Baku or Najaf. Despite reports that Iraq would suspend Iranian carriers, Iran Air said its Tehran, Mashhad and Isfahan services to Najaf were running to schedule immediately before the US deadline, and airport and ticketing systems still showed flights between the two countries.

Tehran airport's own departures board told a different story on the eve of the US deadline. On September 22, Imam Khomeini International in Tehran was still listing a full international programme, with Iran Air, Iran Airtour, Taban, Meraj, Soroush, ATA and Varesh all scheduled to Istanbul within a few hours of each other, Zagros to Ankara, Caspian to Izmir, Sepehran to Baghdad and Muscat, Fly Kish to Yerevan, and Mahan Air operating to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Bangkok and Phuket. Arrivals included Mahan from Moscow, Iran Airtour from Baku and Dubai, and Taban from Trabzon. Seeing that live board from Iran suggests not everyone is playing ball.  China's foreign ministry said Beijing opposed unilateral sanctions lacking a basis in international law or UN Security Council authorisation. Yet, no single airport can replace Istanbul or Doha, and Iranian international traffic is instead splitting across several corridors.

Turkish route

Turkey may remain the most useful route even without direct flights from Iranian airports. The land border is open, allowing passengers to cross into eastern Turkey and travel to cities such as Van before taking a domestic flight to Istanbul, where Turkish Airlines and others connect across Europe, North America, Africa and Asia. That route sidesteps the central problem the sanctions create. Once a passenger enters Turkey by land, the onward journey does not require a sanctioned Iranian aircraft to obtain fuel, ground handling, or landing services at a foreign airport.

Border capacity is the constraint, and the trip from Tehran to the border is quite something. Heavy traffic has caused severe congestion at the Bazargan-Gürbulak crossing, where the governor of Maku said rising passenger volumes and limited processing capacity on the Turkish side recently produced waits of 12 to 13 hours. Iran's shift to overland freight after disruption to maritime trade is adding further pressure on the same infrastructure.

Armenian gap

Meanwhile, Armenia offers a second land-air bridge, particularly for Europe and Russia. The border is open, so travellers can cross and continue to Yerevan without depending on an international flight from Iran. Zvartnots International Airport offers foreign carriers, direct European services and extensive Russian connections.

That gives Armenia an advantage over options that depend on airlines continuing to fly into Iran, since the land link holds even if Tehran-Yerevan services stop. Zvartnots is far smaller than Istanbul, Dubai or Doha and cannot match their range or frequency.

Moscow is a gateway for Russia, Central Asia and parts of Asia. Russia has little incentive to enforce US unilateral measures and has built alternative financial, transport and trading arrangements after years of Western restrictions.

It is a weak substitute for westbound travel, as Western sanctions and airspace closures have cut direct links between Moscow and much of Europe and North America. Moscow's role also depends on Iran-Russia services surviving: routes flown by sanctioned Iranian carriers remain exposed to difficulties obtaining foreign airport services, while Russian airlines operating their own Iran routes would make the option considerably more viable.

Chinese showdown 

China could prove more durable for eastbound passengers if its carriers keep serving Iran. Beijing's rejection of the sanctions gives it more political room than US allies, and Chinese hubs connect onward across East and Southeast Asia, including Japan and South Korea.

The distinction between Iranian and Chinese carriers matters, since a Chinese airline operating into Iran lets passengers leave without a sanctioned Iranian aircraft needing services abroad. Political opposition has not yet translated into bookable capacity: travel agencies report difficulty finding available services on Chinese and Russian airlines.

Azerbaijan looks an obvious gateway given its proximity to northern Iran and Baku's international airport, but its land borders remain closed to ordinary travellers, including the Iranian frontier. Special exemptions exist but provide no general route. That leaves Baku dependent on air links, and Iran Airtour, which has flown Tehran-Baku, was among the 27 carriers sanctioned on September 8.

Iraq has the long land frontier and established cross-border traffic that air-only alternatives lack, and matters particularly for religious travel to Najaf and Karbala, with some onward international connections from Baghdad. Its international network is far smaller than Istanbul's or the Gulf hubs', making it an additional outlet rather than a replacement.

Whatever happens on September 23 will be a watershed moment in aviation history, with countries worldwide either facing off against the US and losing access to that market or ignoring Washington's demands. What happens to Iran's president's plane currently at JFK Airport in New York is another mater.