Iran's economy contracts 0.7% in year to March on construction, drought

Iran's economy contracted by 0.7% in the financial year ending on March 20, according to preliminary estimates from the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), driven mainly by sharp declines in construction, agriculture and industry, according to data released by the bank on June 24.
The contraction marks a reversal from growth of 3.1% the previous year, as the war with the United States, an energy imbalance and a severe drought weighed on output, even as the oil sector continued to expand. GDP at base prices, in constant 1400 prices, fell to IRR77,867,900bn from IRR78,443,800bn a year earlier.
The bank said the main cause of the decline lay in falling value added in construction, agriculture, forestry and fishing, and industry, wholesale, retail and motor vehicle repair, which contributed negative 0.8, 1.4 and 0.4 percentage points respectively to the headline figure.
Agricultural value added fell 4.2% in constant prices, with lower output of wheat, barley, pistachios and dates among the main factors, based on data from the agriculture ministry. The construction sector contracted 15.8%, with private-sector construction down 23.4% in constant prices despite a 16% rise in the current-price value of private urban construction investment.
The industry and mining group shrank 3.2%, down 5.6 percentage points on the year, contributing negative 1.1 percentage points to the headline rate. Within it, industry fell 1.6%, mining rose 2.9%, utilities edged up 0.1% and water supply and waste management fell 3.4%.
Oil remained the driver of the economy, with oil group value added rising 3.1% in constant prices to IRR6,377,000bn, on higher crude production and exports. The services group grew 1.2%, contributing 0.6 percentage points to the headline rate.
On the demand side, private final consumption rose 0.2%, government final consumption rose 0.5% and gross fixed capital formation fell 11.9%. Gross fixed capital formation in construction fell 12.3%, in machinery 12.2% and other 0.4%, with the machinery decline tied to lower imports of capital goods.
Exports of goods and services fell 4.9% and imports fell 16.6% in constant prices. GDP at market prices fell 0.9% on the year.
The central bank said the calculations were preliminary and subject to revision.
Both with full quarterly detail. Columns run Q1-Q4 of the year to March 2026, plus the annual figures for both years. Quarters are labelled by the Iranian seasons (Q1 = spring, starting late March).
GDP growth by economic activity, quarterly (% change y/y, constant 1400 prices)
| Activity | Yr to Mar 2025 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Yr to Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 3.6 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -4.2 |
| Oil | 4.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Industry and mining | 2.4 | -7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -6.7 | -3.2 |
| Mining | 1.9 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.9 |
| Industry | 2.3 | -7.7 | 1.8 | 6.9 | -7.6 | -1.6 |
| Electricity, gas, steam, air con | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.5 | -2.7 | 0.1 |
| Water, waste, sewerage | 1.7 | 0.0 | -5.0 | -0.9 | -7.9 | -3.4 |
| Construction | 3.4 | -14.2 | -11.8 | -33.0 | -7.4 | -15.8 |
| Services | 3.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.1 | -2.2 | 1.2 |
| Wholesale, retail, vehicle repair | 2.8 | -3.6 | -2.3 | 2.1 | -7.1 | -2.7 |
| Transport and storage | 1.3 | -3.9 | 3.9 | 4.3 | -7.3 | -0.8 |
| Accommodation and food | 5.1 | -5.4 | 1.5 | -2.8 | -20.3 | -6.7 |
| Information and communications | 13.5 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 13.9 | -3.7 | 7.4 |
| Financial and insurance | 6.3 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 11.2 | 1.7 | 9.2 |
| Real estate | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| Professional, scientific, technical | 9.1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | -2.0 | 3.6 |
| Administrative and support | 0.5 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Public admin, defence, social security | 0.3 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Education | 4.3 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 7.5 |
| Health and social work | 10.0 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 2.6 | 9.0 | 8.4 |
| Arts, recreation, other services | 20.4 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 12.3 | -4.1 | 5.0 |
| GDP at base prices | 3.1 | -2.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | -3.6 | -0.7 |
| GDP at base prices (excl oil) | 3.0 | -2.6 | 0.1 | 2.0 | -4.1 | -1.1 |
Contribution to GDP growth by activity, quarterly (percentage points)
| Activity | Yr to Mar 2025 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Yr to Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 0.4 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| Oil | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Industry and mining | 0.8 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -2.6 | -1.1 |
| Mining | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Industry | 0.6 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 1.8 | -2.1 | -0.4 |
| Electricity, gas, steam, air con | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Water, waste, sewerage | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Construction | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Services | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 | 0.6 |
| Wholesale, retail, vehicle repair | 0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
| Transport and storage | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| Accommodation and food | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Information and communications | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| Financial and insurance | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Real estate | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Professional, scientific, technical | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Public admin, defence, social security | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Education | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Health and social work | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Arts, recreation, other services | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| GDP at base prices | 3.1 | -2.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | -3.6 | -0.7 |
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