The death toll in the Iran protests rose to 200, according to doctor’s estimates as the escalating nationwide demonstrations go into the thirteenth day.

Iranian security forces have been accused of opening fire on demonstrators as nationwide protests against the Islamic Republic escalated sharply, with at least 217 people reportedly killed in Tehran alone, TIME reports.

A Tehran-based doctor, speaking on condition of anonymity, told TIME that six hospitals in the capital had recorded 217 deaths, “most by live ammunition.” The doctor also alleged that security personnel removed bodies from hospitals to suppress the scale of the crackdown.

“Most of the dead were young people,” he said, noting that several were shot outside a northern Tehran police station after security forces “sprayed machine gun fire at protesters” who died “on the spot.”

The Human Rights Activists News Agency, based in Washington, reported a lower confirmed death toll of 63, including 49 civilians, noting it counts only those who have been identified, and 2,200 have been arrested during the unrest.

The reported toll, if confirmed, would represent one of the deadliest state responses to civil unrest in Iran in years. The regime has imposed a near-total shutdown of internet and mobile communications since the start of the mass protests two days ago.

In a warning earlier that day, US President Donald Trump said the regime would “pay hell” if it targeted protesters and has suggested the US may intervene, shortly after toppling the Venezuela president in Operation Maduro on January 3.

Escalating demonstrations

The protests, which began on December 28 over worsening economic conditions, have now spread across all 31 provinces. Demands have shifted from economic relief after the national currency, the rial, went into free fall in recent months, and have become increasingly political, demanding the government step aside.

Protestors were out in force for a second day after exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi called the people to the streets on January 8 and asked the military to change sides to “protect the people.”

Protesters have used slogans such as “Freedom” and “Death to the Dictator”, while government buildings are increasingly targeted by the protestors. Approximately two million people answered Pahlavi’s call and took to the streets in over a 100 towns and cities.

Some of the biggest crowds were in the capital Tehran where the security forces were overwhelmed by the sheer numbers. The next few days on January 9 the crowds were even bigger according to local reports posted on social media, although since the internet was shut down it has become impossible to verify any reports.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the unrest on January 9, saying, “The Islamic Republic will not back down in the face of vandals” who seek to “please” Trump. Tehran’s prosecutor warned that protesters could face the death penalty, while an Islamic Revolutionary Guard official told state television: “If... a bullet hits you, don’t complain.”

Protests began at the end December during which a total of 46 people were killed in sporadic violence. However, following the mass turnout on January 8 violence rapidly escalated as security forces struggled to contain the protests. As bne IntelliNews reported, on that day security forces opened up on the crowds in the town of Fardis with a machine gun mounted on the back of a Toyota truck killing a reported 50 people, according to online reports. Reports of shooting emerged from several other cities, including Tehran.

Arson

The second day of mass protests have become more violent as protestors continued to attack and torch government buildings, mosques and police cars.

A chain of stores in Tehran owned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was targeted and burned by demonstrators. Protesters have also targeted stores run by the Baseej, the paramilitary elite force of the IRGC, police stations, statues and posters of regime figures.

Mosques, shrines and husseyniyat (halls for mourning the martyrdom of Hussein, the grandson of the prophet and third Shia Imam).

Religious objects are under attack as repression by the theocracy has led some Iranians to see religion itself as part of the regime's oppressive apparatus.

Protesters burned the Al-Rasoul mosque of Saadatabad in Tehran on the first night of the mass protests. The Iranian General Prosecutor has threatened to execute arsonists, but in an act of defiance protesters set the mosque on fire again on the second night of protests.

A senior riot police officer stationed in a Kurdish city told TIME there was “100% confusion” among security forces. “I’m a senior rank here, and I don’t know what’s happening. They’re doing things in secret, and we’re afraid of what’s coming,” he said, also requesting anonymity. “I know all the officers in my station, and they believe the regime is collapsing.”

The Iranian leadership is still grappling with the fallout from a military conflict with Israel in June, which severely damaged its air defences and nuclear infrastructure, as well as killing several key IRGC leadership figures.

At the same time, a collapsing currency, water shortages and frequent blackouts have deepened the domestic crisis. The government can’t provide even basic economic welfare which is in survival mode now, according to reports from the ground.

On a knife edge

With the economy in a tailspin, the people are becoming increasingly desperate. However, the fate of the rebellion now hangs in the balance. The population has become increasingly radicalized, but the IRGC and security forces have remained loyal to the regime for now.

“Imagine being an average Iranian. You want a job, a family, a normal life. You come home to dry taps because there is no water. Your child cannot watch television because electricity fails. Food is unaffordable as inflation erases your salary. You cannot speak freely, protest, or leave. You watch IRGC officers and Iraqi militias earn higher pay and live under protection while you are treated as expendable,” Zineb Riboua, an Iranian in Tehran said in a social media post. “This is when life itself loses meaning, and the fear of being shot at a protest no longer restrains you. This is where we’re at. That’s the mood.”

With Iran's anti-government unrest evolving rapidly and foreign pressure mounting, the clerical establishment appears unable, for now, to tackle what has become a crisis of legitimacy at the heart of the Islamic Republic. The increase in the size of the crowds on the second day of mass protests bodes ill for the Ayatollah’s regime. Security services have already been overwhelmed by the sheer numbers and unable to contain the protests.

Pahlavi has called for even bigger demonstrations over this weekend starting at 6pm local time on January 10 and asked the protestors to target government buildings and take over and hold city centres in the hope of causing the government to collapse.

As reported by bnm IntelliNews the regime has crushed larger protests than this one in the past, using brutal repressive measures including shooting live ammo into crowds and then following up with a sustained set of executions.

“If the current uprising in Iran is crushed, the regime will unleash a brutal campaign of revenge against its own people,” Iranian analyst

Navid Mohebbi said in a post on social media. “After the recent war, more than 21,000 Iranians were arrested, and dozens have already been executed—with executions still ongoing.”

“If this uprising fails, we will see mass arrests, systematic torture, and waves of executions lasting for months—possibly years. The regime will move methodically, openly, and without restraint,” Mohebbi added. “Ultimately, for a final victory, protesters would have to seize state institutions, including Khamenei’s headquarters and other key sites. Now that the regime has already resorted to widespread killing, that moment would turn into a bloodbath.”