Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that three tropical weather systems currently surrounding the country could significantly heighten the risk of heavy rainfall and high waves as Indonesia approaches the peak of the rainy season in early 2026, Jakarta Globe reports.

BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani told President Prabowo Subianto during a cabinet meeting on Monday that authorities are closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Bakung, along with two developing systems known as Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S and Seed 95S. Cyclone Bakung is positioned southwest of Lampung, off southern Sumatra, and is currently moving away from Indonesia. However, the system has intensified from Category 1 to Category 2, raising concerns.

Faisal noted that even weaker systems can be dangerous, citing Tropical Cyclone Seroja, which caused severe damage in the past, despite being classified only as Category 1. He added that Bakung could potentially shift closer to Indonesian territory over the next two to three days, a development that would increase rainfall intensity across several regions.

In addition to Bakung, BMKG is tracking Seed 93S affecting Bali, Nusa Tenggara and East Java, as well as Seed 95S south of Papua. The combined influence of these systems is expected to push rainfall levels from heavy to very heavy and increase the risk of hazardous sea conditions.

BMKG has coordinated preparedness efforts with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), regional disaster management agencies (BPBD), and the national search and rescue agency Basarnas. The public has been urged to remain alert but calm as monitoring continues.

Indonesia is also playing a regional role, having been designated a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre by the World Meteorological Organisation. BMKG is working closely with meteorological agencies in Australia, Japan and India to assess the development and trajectory of Cyclone Bakung, which briefly reached Category 3 strength on 14 December with wind speeds of up to 65 knots before weakening.

As the peak rainy season is expected in January and February 2026, BMKG has launched weather modification operations in six locations across Sumatra, Java and Nusa Tenggara. These efforts aim to reduce the impact of extreme weather, particularly in southern Sumatra, Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, where rainfall is forecast to increase sharply.

The operations involve cloud seeding with sodium chloride to induce rainfall over safer areas such as open waters, preventing rain clouds from moving inland. In urban areas like Jakarta, calcium oxide is used to break up clouds and reduce the likelihood of intense rainfall. BMKG estimates these measures can lower rainfall intensity by 20% to 50%.