India’s power sector has recorded an unusual dip in carbon dioxide output, with emissions falling by 1% in the first half of 2025 compared with a year earlier. It is only the second time in nearly fifty years that such a decline has been observed Carbon Brief reported on September 18. Over the past twelve months, emissions were down by 0.2%, according to the analysis Carbon Brief published.

This shift has taken place against the backdrop of record growth in renewable energy across India as the nation pushed ahead on installing renewables at a pace seen in few other places around the world. In the first six months of the year the report says, India added 25.1 GW of clean-energy capacity — a 69% rise on the same period in 2024.

That expansion, the report says, is expected to produce roughly 50 terawatt hours of electricity annually, enough to match the average increase in nationwide demand. It is an expansion being helped in part by India putting in place its own solar production infrastructure to help avoid importing hardware from China and elsewhere.

Research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) cited, also highlights several factors behind the drop Carbon Brief says. Oil use has flattened after years of steady growth, while gas consumption has fallen by 7%.

Cooler weather in some parts of India as well as heavier rainfall during the monsoon has also reduced electricity demand. In contrast, oil-product demand showed no growth at all it was stated - a stark departure from the 6% and 4% annual increases registered over the last two years.

The picture, however, is mixed Carbon Brief claims. Heavy industry in India continues to drive emissions upwards. Steel production rose by 7% to support this, as did cement output by 10% in the first half of the year, fuelled in large part by government infrastructure spending.

Indeed, as Carbon Brief indicates but as is already widely known, coal still dominates India’s energy mix and will do for some time to come. At present coal accounts for more than half of the sector’s emissions. Yet the new figures suggest the country could reach a peak in power-sector emissions before 2030, provided the expansion of renewables stays on track. India has set a widely-publicised target of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by that date, with 243GW already installed by mid-2025.

On the global stage, India remains a decisive force. Since 2019 it has been responsible for nearly 40% of the increase in energy-sector emissions, reflecting the pace of its industrialisation and rising energy needs as millions move into the middle classes. For now though, although emissions per person remain well below the world average, India still accounts for 8% of global energy-sector CO2 in 2024, and that number is likely to rise as tastes change and India becomes more developed.

In sync, whether the present slowdown signals what Carbon Brief suggests as being a lasting shift or a temporary pause, will depend entirely on how quickly renewables continue to expand VS how fast industrial demand evolves, and whether oil consumption remains subdued.