The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth in sub-Saharan Africa to remain broadly stable at 4.3% in 2026 before edging up to 4.5% in 2027, but warned that the regional headline masks widening divergence between countries exposed to higher food and energy prices and those benefiting from reform efforts.

In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook update, titled Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology, the IMF said global growth would slow to 3.0% in 2026 from an average of 3.5% in 2024-25 before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. The slowdown reflects the impact of the Middle East war, partly offset by stronger global technology demand linked to artificial intelligence.

The IMF said many low-income countries, including in Africa, were poorly positioned to benefit from the technology-led upswing and remained vulnerable to higher energy and food costs. It said activity would weaken in energy importers with limited participation in the technology value chain, a group that includes many low-income economies.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast was unchanged from the IMF’s April projection, while the 2027 forecast was revised up by 0.1 percentage point. The region grew by an estimated 4.2% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, according to the report.

Nigeria’s economy is forecast to grow by 4.1% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, unchanged from the April outlook. The IMF said Nigeria was being supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, although higher prices for essentials were expected to worsen poverty and food insecurity.

South Africa’s growth is forecast at 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The IMF said the country’s outlook was expected to remain stable in the near term and continue improving on the back of stronger policy frameworks and ongoing structural reforms.

The IMF said oil-importing, non-resource-intensive African economies were more adversely affected by higher energy and food prices, while some larger economies were benefiting from earlier stabilisation and reform efforts. It warned that much of the region remained largely outside the AI-driven global technology upswing and was also facing headwinds from falling official development assistance.

Growth in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, excluding Nigeria and South Africa, is expected to slow from 5.6% in 2025 to 5.2% in both 2026 and 2027.

The IMF said higher food and energy prices could increase the risk of social unrest and domestic political instability in vulnerable economies in sub-Saharan Africa, especially where policy buffers are limited. It also warned that intensified disruptions in fertiliser and energy markets could materially worsen food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries where food production relies heavily on smallholder farmers.

Global headline inflation is forecast to rise to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025 before easing to 3.9% in 2027, as higher energy and food prices interrupt the disinflation trend that had been under way since early 2024.

The IMF said policy priorities for vulnerable economies included preserving price stability, rebuilding fiscal buffers and avoiding broad fuel and food subsidies. It urged governments to use temporary, targeted support for vulnerable households while maintaining price signals and strengthening investment in energy security, digital infrastructure and skills.