The election victory of Peter Magyar in Hungary is set to unblock tens of billions in EU support for Ukraine, easing one of the most persistent internal constraints on Brussels' war financing — but without delivering a clean strategic alignment.

Magyar's win, securing a two-thirds majority in parliament, removes a key veto point that had stalled the EU's €90bn ($97bn) financial assistance package for Kyiv. Cyprus, which holds the rotating EU Council presidency, is now preparing to accelerate both the aid package and a twentieth round of sanctions against Russia that has been flumoxed by a Hungarian veto.

The shift is procedural, but material. For months, former prime minister Viktor Orban had used Hungary's position to block or dilute EU measures tied to Ukraine. That constraint has now been lifted, but Magyar is likely to lift the block in exchange for concessions. The horsetrading now begins.

EU cooperation with limits

Magyar has signalled a more cooperative relationship with Brussels, saying he "won't stand in the way" of the €90bn package — a position that has raised expectations in EU institutions of smoother decision-making in the coming months.

The change, however, is not a wholesale realignment. Magyar has taken a clearer line on Russia than his predecessor, explicitly describing Moscow as the aggressor and recognising Ukraine's right to self-defence. At the same time, he has set limits that matter operationally. He has ruled out direct Hungarian military or financial contributions to Kyiv, stating that he opposes sending weapons or money to Ukraine. That keeps Hungary within the EU consensus politically, but at arm's length materially.

On relations with Moscow, Magyar has been blunt. "If necessary, we will negotiate, but we will not become friends," he said, indicating that Budapest still sees diplomacy with Russia as unavoidable. On energy, he was equally candid: "We are unable to change geography. Russia will be here, and Hungary too. We want to buy oil cheaply and safely." Hungary will not be cutting off Russian oil imports.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded cautiously, saying Moscow was "ready to build relations with the new government," adding that everything would "depend on how this government understands its national interests." He declined to comment on statements made "in the heat of the election campaign," saying Russia would instead "look at concrete deeds."

The result is a hybrid position: less obstructionist than Orban, but far from fully aligned with the EU mainstream.

The €35bn question: Brussels leverage over Budapest

For EU officials, Magyar's stance may be enough — for now. The immediate priority is functionality: getting funding approved, sanctions packages passed, and institutional gridlock cleared.

But for Magyar, the relationship with Brussels is also transactional. His primary goal will be securing the release of approximately €17bn in frozen EU funds due to a row over judicial reforms — equivalent to around 10% of Hungary's GDP. Including other unreleased funds such as COVID relief, the total pot of EU money on the table amounts to some €35bn, creating significant room for a deal between Budapest and Brussels.

The EU has set out 27 conditions for Hungary to meet before those funds are released, according to the Financial Times. Among the demands: dropping the block on the €90bn Ukraine loan, lifting vetoes on Russia sanctions, implementing anti-corruption reforms, repealing Orban-era policies on migration and LGBT rights, and resolving an EU court ruling on asylum rules — a dispute currently costing Hungary nearly €900mn in daily fines, deducted directly from its EU budget allocation.

Cyprus has already signalled its intent to move quickly, and Brussels appears keen to capitalise on the political window before new fractures emerge.

Von der Leyen pushes for majority voting

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen waited less than a day after Orban's defeat to call for the EU to gain greater power over national governments on foreign policy decisions. Welcoming Magyar's victory as "a day to celebrate," she said the result gave governments "momentum" to move to qualified majority voting in foreign policy — allowing the bloc to push through decisions on issues such as Russia sanctions and Ukraine funding without a single member state being able to block them.

"Moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic blockages, as we have seen in the past," she said.

The proposal faces an uphill battle. Even typically pro-EU governments are likely to resist surrendering control over foreign policy. And of course nixing the unianimity rule where every country, no matter how small, gets a veto, requires a unianimous vote by the very same small countries agreeing to give up their neogtating power and allowing the large countries to effectively take contorl of the EU foreign policy. Currently the only supra-national power the EU has is to make trade policy for the whole Union.

Magyar himself, a Hungarian nationalist, is especially unlikely to relinquish his country's veto — making von der Leyen's push more of a political wish than a realistic near-term prospect.

Ukraine relief, but expectations limited

Kyiv has welcomed Orban's removal, but officials are under no illusion that Hungary will suddenly become an ally after years of deteriorating relations.

"The choice of the Hungarians marked the defeat of the policy of blackmail and anti-Ukrainian propaganda," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said. But he was careful to temper expectations: "I also want to set realistic expectations for Ukrainians. There is painstaking, pragmatic and calm work ahead to find common ground, restore mutual respect and implement common pragmatic interests."

Magyar's position reflects a wider European pattern — support for Ukraine, but with boundaries. "Everyone in Hungary knows that Ukraine is the victim in this war," he said at a press conference on April 13. Yet he has opposed fast-track EU accession for Ukraine, describing the question as still "academic" while the country remains at war — and saying that if it ever became a live issue, he would put the decision to a national referendum.

In that sense, Hungary's shift is less a break than a recalibration: from active resistance to conditional cooperation. For Brussels, that may be sufficient to move policy forward. For Kyiv, it means support is coming — but with constraints attached.

ICC membership to be restored

In one of his more concrete early commitments, Magyar announced that Hungary will submit a request to rejoin the International Criminal Court. Orban had withdrawn Hungary from the ICC specifically to enable his close ally Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Budapest without risk of arrest — the court having issued a warrant for Netanyahu on war crimes charges.

The move will provide a modest but symbolic boost to the ICC, which has faced significant pressure after several countries ignored its arrest warrants. The US, which is not an ICC member, has also hosted Netanyahu and threatened sanctions against court officials following the Netanyahu warrant — a move widely criticised as a breach of international law.

Term limits for PMs

Delivering on a key election pledge, Magyar confirmed he will introduce legislation capping the prime ministerial term at eight years. The measure would bar Orban — who served for 16 years — from seeking the office again.

Strict immigration policy to continue

On immigration, Magyar made clear there will be no softening. Speaking directly about Hungary's ongoing EU fine for violating migrant asylum rules, he said:

"I will make it clear to the President of the European Commission and to all European leaders that Hungary will take a very strict stance on immigration and will not accept any pact or allocation mechanism of this kind. Furthermore, we will keep the border fence reinforced and even plug the holes that are there now — because there are holes in that border fence, probably not by accident."

He also drew a pointed contrast with his predecessor, noting that unlike Orban, his government would not release convicted people smugglers. "We are speaking honestly and we really want to protect our country and Europe from illegal immigration. There are legal ways to come and they must be respected."