Disruptions to the fertilisers market are starting to bite as stockpiles run low in Asia and beyond just as the spring planting season gets underway.

Nearly half of global urea trade and 46% of total supply originates in the Gulf, according to Signal Group and Al Jazeera. In addition, 45% of global sulphur supply — a key feedstock for phosphate fertiliser — is now effectively bottled up behind the Strait of Hormuz, according to American Ag Network.

Most Asian countries have between 4 and 12 weeks of usable fertiliser cover under normal conditions, but in a disruption like this, that window can shrink quickly.

India typically maintains 6 to 8 weeks of urea stocks in pipelines and warehouses. The government mandates a buffer for regular operational disruptions but doesn't maintain a long term reserve. The drawdown is particularly heavy at the moment because of the rising demand from the planting season.

Bangladesh is much more vulnerable it's much more dependent on imports. It is believed to hold between three and six weeks of fertilizers in reserves but it is already shut down four out of its five fertilizer plants because of dwindling stocks. Experts say that it can last another two to four weeks before it faces acute shortages.

Pakistan is similar to Bangladesh but it's supplies is slightly more diversified. It has an estimated 4 to six weeks of stock and with the LNG cutoff experts say it can last another one to two months before there are major shortages.

Southeast Asia – Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand -- all right and slightly better position thanks to some domestic production that increases the buffer. They are believed to hold between one and three months combined of reserves if local production is included but they remain opposed to spiking prices.

The problem for Asia is not running out of fertlisers completely, its about missing the application window, as without fertilsers yields during the harvest later this year can halve and feed through into a food price inflation shock.

Fertilisers lock in

With stocks already running out, countries in the region have started to ban exports and limit access to ensure the domestic demand is met. China has curbed shipments of urea and NPK blends to protect domestic supply, leaving Russia and Morocco as the only major exporters operating without significant constraints.

Qatar’s gas production has been drastically reduced after an Iranian strike on the Ras Laffan LNG plant on March 18 that reduced output by 17%. Satellite photos of the site released this weekend show that the damage may be more extensive than previously reported and QatarEnergy CEO said that repairs may take three to five years.

Gas is a vital feedstock for fertiliser production, and as the war goes into its fifth week, the shortages are now feeding down the supply chain as the crisis virus takes hold. Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), the world’s largest single-site urea producer, supplies around 14% of global urea, according to Al Jazeera. The company shut down operations on March 4 after QatarEnergy declared force majeure at Ras Laffan. The gas that made the fertilizer that grows the food is gone.

Bangladesh has shut four of its five state-run fertiliser plants, including Ghorashal Polash, Chittagong Urea, Jamuna and Ashuganj, eliminating 3.7mn tonnes of annual production, according to Reuters and Al Jazeera. The country, which sources 65% of its LNG from Qatar, has introduced fuel rationing, closed universities and deployed troops to guard oil depots.

India has also reduced gas supply to its fertiliser sector to 70% of its recent average, cutting output by an estimated 800,000 tonnes per month. Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative (IFFCO) halted operations, while Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd (CHAMBLFERT.NS) and Krishak Bharati Cooperative (Kribhco) curtailed production.

Pakistan has also suspended LNG supply to fertiliser producers, forcing Agritech Ltd (AGL.PK) to halt operations and prompting Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd (FATIMA.PK) and Pak-Arab Fertilizers Ltd to scale back output, according to The Diplomat. Authorities have introduced emergency energy-saving measures, including school closures.

The growing drought is pushing up prices relentlessly. Urea prices have surged 40% from just under $500 to more than $700 per tonne, according to Argus data cited by Al Jazeera, leaving prices about 60% higher than a year ago.

The only major exporters left unconstrained are Russia and Morocco, which are both anticipating windfall profits this year.