Ghana’s petroleum revenue surged 52% in the first half of 2026, bolstered by higher crude prices and recovering production, even as the country’s oil-revenue watchdog reported gaps in government spending disclosures and questioned the use of funds allocated to its national oil company.

Receipts reached $561.41mn from $370.34mn a year earlier, according to the Public Interest and Accountability Committee’s (PIAC) semi-annual report, published on October 21 and reported by Citi News on October 22. Crude sold by the Ghana Group fetched an average $92.81 a barrel, about 22% above the government’s $76.22 benchmark. Corporate income tax collections increased 37%, although receipts also depend on the timing of company tax payments.

Higher crude prices have supported government revenue while increasing the cost of imported refined fuels, putting separate pressure on consumers, businesses and foreign-exchange demand. PIAC Chairman Richard Ellimah said on October 14 that annual petroleum receipts could exceed $1bn if prices remained elevated.

The first-half rebound follows a sharp fall in 2025, when petroleum revenue dropped to about $770mn from $1.36bn in 2024, according to PIAC. In April, the committee had forecast 2026 receipts of $985mn.

See IntelliNews: Ghana reports 30% rise in oil output amid $2bn investment drive

Oil money under scrutiny

PIAC said the Ministry of Finance had failed to provide requested petroleum revenue utilisation data, forcing it to omit the spending-assessment chapter from its semi-annual report. The omission prevented the committee from assessing how government petroleum allocations were used during the period.

At an October 21 forum, Ellimah questioned whether 15 years of PIAC reports had resulted in public officials being held accountable for breaches of the Petroleum Revenue Management Act. He described the watchdog as a “toothless bulldog”, citing its lack of prosecutorial powers.

PIAC has long complained about its limited enforcement powers. In January, PIAC Coordinator Isaac Dwamena said the committee faced structural constraints, including weak enforcement powers, political risks and reduced financial independence, and warned that ministerial discretion and inconsistent use of statutory allocation formulas had undermined the petroleum funds. He said Ghana had earned more than $11.5bn in petroleum revenue since 2011.

See IntelliNews: Ghana’s $11.5bn oil windfall risks waste without long-term plan, watchdog says

The committee also questioned expenditure by Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), which received $85.98mn during the half-year, or 39.9% of the Carried and Participating Interest allocation, including $40.14mn allocated to Jubilee equity financing. Only $23.45mn of that allocation funded Jubilee production and development costs.

According to PIAC, the remaining $16.69mn, together with other GNPC receipts, was used for expenditure outside the Jubilee field, including staff costs and head-office construction. The committee questioned the use of funds earmarked for field costs for other purposes and recommended linking such allocations to verified payment requests from operators. Its findings do not, by themselves, establish unlawful expenditure.

The findings add to earlier tensions between PIAC and the state oil company. In May, the committee referred to the attorney general a dispute over about $561mn in petroleum revenue it said GNPC’s exploration subsidiary, Explorco, had failed to remit, B&FT reported.

Separately, GNPC Chief Executive Kwame Ntow Amoah pledged continued cooperation and timely technical information to PIAC in an October 22 statement. The statement did not specifically address the committee’s findings on Jubilee financing.

The watchdog also challenged the government’s $100mn ceiling on the Ghana Stabilisation Fund, arguing that the formula under the Petroleum Revenue Management Regulations, 2019, implied a $628.56mn cap for 2026.

The ceiling determines how much petroleum revenue may be retained in the fund as a buffer against future revenue shocks before excess resources can be transferred for other permitted purposes. A lower ceiling potentially allows more revenue to be transferred out rather than retained as savings. PIAC’s calculation represents its interpretation of the regulations, not a judicial determination, and the $528.56mn difference is not itself evidence of missing or misappropriated funds.

As of mid-2025, the Stabilisation Fund held about $123mn and the Heritage Fund, intended to save for future generations, about $1.3bn, according to PIAC data.

PIAC urged the government to treat additional petroleum receipts cautiously and transfer revenue above budget assumptions to the petroleum funds in accordance with the law, rather than allow a temporary oil-price rally to distort spending plans.

Unpaid surface rentals stood at $2.41mn at the end of June, excluding a further $1.73mn owed under terminated petroleum agreements. Disagreements over Additional Oil Entitlement payments also remain unresolved.

Production recovers, longer-term outlook uncertain

Crude production increased 11.7% to 20.58mn barrels in January–June, compared with 18.42mn a year earlier. Jubilee produced 12.82mn barrels, Sankofa-Gye Nyame 5.07mn and Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) 2.68mn.

The half-year improvement follows six consecutive annual production declines, from 71.44mn barrels in 2019 to 37.3mn in 2025. It does not yet establish a durable reversal. Petroleum receipts also depend on crude lifting schedules and payment timing, making revenue growth an imperfect measure of current output.

Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW; GSE: TLW) has cited new wells, production optimisation and improved offshore equipment reliability among factors supporting Jubilee’s performance. In a separate September update, the company said its latest drilling campaign had been completed and that it had contracted a rig for up to 10 wells in 2027–2028.

Tullow raised its 2026 free-cash-flow forecast to $170mn–$250mn in August, citing stronger Ghanaian production, higher realised oil prices and progress in recovering government receivables.

See IntelliNews: Tullow raises 2026 cash-flow forecast on stronger Ghana production

Relations between the government and investors have nevertheless been tested. In September, an international arbitration tribunal rejected Tullow’s challenge to a $196.5mn corporate income tax assessment, which the government said upheld a total of about $393.09mn including penalties.

See IntelliNews: Ghana’s $3.5bn oil investment drive advances amid six-year production decline

Gas production rose 4.4% in the first half, while flaring declined across all three producing fields, according to PIAC.

Ghana’s Parliament ratified extensions of the Jubilee and TEN petroleum agreements to December 2040 in February. The arrangements could underpin up to $2bn in additional investment and as many as 20 further Jubilee wells over the extended licence period, rather than representing spending already made.

Separately, Shell (LSE: SHEL; NYSE: SHEL) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) signed a preliminary offshore agreement in September, while Eni (BIT: ENI; NYSE: E) and Vitol signed memoranda of understanding covering two offshore blocks. These arrangements remain subject to further negotiations and approvals and do not constitute final petroleum agreements or producing projects.

With further drilling planned and potential investors assessing offshore acreage, Ghana faces a dual challenge: sustaining its recovery in crude production while strengthening accountability for how petroleum revenue is allocated and spent.