Fitch Ratings has raised its 2026 outlook for the global oil and gas sector to "improving" from "neutral", citing higher near-term price assumptions tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, EMEA head of natural resources and commodities Angelina Valavina said in a note on June 8.

The upgrade points to a windfall for producers from a supply shock that has lifted prices well above last year's levels, even as the agency expects oversupply to pull them back later in the year.

Fitch raised its average 2026 Brent assumption to $87 a barrel, above the $68 average recorded in 2025, on the basis that the strait closure lasts about five months until the end of July, against one to two months previously assumed.

The agency said it expected Brent to hold at $100-110 a barrel in June and July during the closure before falling to about $70 by September, a level driven by supply and demand fundamentals with a residual geopolitical risk premium.

Fitch said it assumed a quick recovery in output once the strait reopened, given no material damage to oil infrastructure, with oil held on tankers and in storage sold first and production returning to broadly normal levels within several weeks. OPEC spare capacity stood at 3.6mn barrels per day before the conflict and the group was likely to produce up to maximum capacity to offset lost volumes.

The agency raised its Title Transfer Facility gas assumption to $14 per thousand cubic feet in 2026 from about $12 in 2025, citing disruption to Qatari LNG flows through Hormuz, and said the European gas market would stay tight through the year.

Among Gulf producers, Fitch said Omani companies were most insulated because their exports did not rely on the strait, while Saudi and UAE producers had pipelines bypassing Hormuz. Kuwaiti and Qatari companies were the most reliant on transit through it.