EU ministers agree on weaker 2040 EU climate goal with CEE opposed

Poland and three other Central European EU member states voted against a new bloc-wide climate target on November 5.
EU environment ministers nonetheless agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions nominally by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, with concessions that make the goal less than that in practice. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic voted against the new target, with Belgium and Bulgaria abstaining.
Poland said it won concessions on the 2040 target by including “important flexibility” measures that Warsaw had sought, allowing up to 5% of total emission cuts to come from cheaper international carbon credits, with an option to raise that share to 10%. In practice, that means the 2040 reduction target is less than 90%.
Poland also succeeded in inserting two revision clauses into the proposal. The first obliges the European Commission to review progress every two years, while the second allows for a downward adjustment of targets if energy costs surge or competitiveness declines.
“A flexible target and the option to revise it mean safety for citizens ... [The deal] opens new opportunities to promote exports of innovative, low-emission technologies beyond the EU,” the ministry said in a statement.
A win for Poland was also securing a one-year delay in the rollout of the EU’s carbon trading system for transport and buildings, known as ETS2. The ETS2 directive “will undergo a deep revision,” Polish Climate and Environment Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska said.
Warsaw has long opposed the extension of emissions trading to transport and housing, arguing it would raise living costs and worsen energy poverty. Analysts have warned that the reform could push household heating bills up sharply, with some estimates pointing to price increases of as much as 150% for several million Polish homes.
Poland’s resistance reflects its continued, albeit diminishing, reliance on hard coal and lignite, which still make up some 60% of the country’s energy mix, down from virtually 100% in 1990. The government maintains that ETS2 fails to account for Poland’s specifics and would burden the Polish and other poorer economies unevenly.
In Czechia, the incoming ruling coalition of Andrej Babis also opposes climate goals. Babis has pushed a climate change denier Petr Macinka to helm the environment portfolio.
Poland also said production linked to defence — including arms and military equipment — should remain shielded from emissions-related costs. “We are calling for EU funds to offset the indirect effects of ETS so Europe can maintain and strengthen its defence capabilities,” the ministry said.
The decision, reached after an all-nighter of negotiations in Brussels, gives the European Commission a mandate to finalise the 2040 climate framework ahead of negotiations with the European Parliament.
The new 2040 target applies to the EU as a whole, with national contributions yet to be defined relative to a given country’s GDP per capita. For comparison, the EU’s current 55% emission-cut goal for 2030 translates into a 17.7% reduction requirement for Poland.
The 90% reduction target, hailed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as a “milestone,” follows months of disputes over whether the EU can afford such deep cuts. Several governments, including Warsaw’s, warned that the plan could inflict serious economic damage unless accompanied by major financial support and flexibility.
The legislative process will now move to trilogue negotiations between the European Parliament and the Council of the EU.
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