Eritrea severed diplomatic relations with Ethiopia on October 1 after Addis Ababa ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, widening the fallout from renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is also reported to be preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 troops from Somalia, a move that none of the governments involved has confirmed.

Ethiopia’s foreign ministry said it was closing the mission in response to Eritrea’s “direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence against Ethiopia”, Reuters reported on the diplomatic rupture.

The expelled diplomats, including the chargé d’affaires and staff accredited to the African Union (AU), were given 48 hours to leave. The ministry cited their “involvement in activities that pose a direct threat to Ethiopia’s national security”, according to the Associated Press, while adding that it still valued Ethiopia’s “strong historical, cultural, and people-to-people ties” with Eritrea, Dawan Africa reported on the embassy closure.

Eritrea’s foreign ministry said it had “no option but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia”, Al Jazeera reported on the decision, and accused Addis Ababa of pursuing a hostile agenda. The Asmara embassy reopened in 2018 as part of a rapprochement that preceded Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel Peace Prize.

Addis Ababa also declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata on October 1, and Cairo responded by expelling a counsellor at the Ethiopian embassy. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting an opposition alliance led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which Asmara denies. Magnus Taylor, deputy project director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group, described the relationship as an “opportunistic military alliance”, the Associated Press reported.

In Somalia, more than 3,000 Ethiopian troops are expected to begin withdrawing in the coming days or weeks, Bloomberg reported on September 30, citing people familiar with the matter. Ethiopia, Somalia and the AU have not announced any change to the deployment. “Ethiopia has not informed us of any plan to withdraw its troops from Somalia,” a Somali defence ministry official said, according to FTL Somalia in a report on the issue.

Ethiopia is one of Somalia’s main military partners in operations against al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-linked insurgent group. It is unclear whether any withdrawal would affect Ethiopian forces serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), troops deployed through bilateral agreements with Mogadishu, or both, Garowe Online reported on the uncertainty over deployments.

During the last war, in November 2020, Ethiopia withdrew only a small number of bilaterally deployed troops and decided against large-scale withdrawals, Reuters reported at the time.

The latest clashes are the biggest escalation in Ethiopia since the 2020-2022 civil war, in which hundreds of thousands of people were killed. Fighting began on August 1 near the Sudanese border and intensified last week, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) data. “We are in the situation of full-blown war now,” TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa said shortly after fighting broke out, according to Foreign Policy in its report on the renewed conflict.

Explosions were heard in Addis Ababa on September 30 and October 1, and government forces have advanced towards Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, Al Jazeera said. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to Tigray after Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle airport, according to the Associated Press.

Ethiopia entered the latest conflict in default, having missed a coupon on its $1bn Eurobond in December 2023, and restructuring talks with holders collapsed on May 27. The country is relying on a four-year, $3.4bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility, and debt-relief talks were delayed for several years by the previous Tigray conflict.

Chatham House warned on October 1 that a protracted war is likely to spill into Eritrea and further into Sudan.