The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has cut its 2026 growth forecast for Ukraine to 1.5% from 2.2% in June, as stepped-up Russian attacks on businesses, energy infrastructure and Black Sea ports push the economy close to stagnation, the bank said on September 24.

The bank expects growth to pick up to 2.5% in 2027, 1.5 percentage points less than it forecast in June, but only if Ukraine's main export route is restored. The outlook depends heavily on how the war develops and on continued foreign financial support, the EBRD said in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report.

The downgrade puts Ukraine well below the 2.5% average the bank now expects across its regions this year. Real GDP was broadly flat in the first half of 2026, and the EBRD says the attacks have shifted the economy "from slow recovery to near stagnation" even as Kyiv holds on to macroeconomic stability in the fifth year of the full-scale war. Local brokerage Dragon Capital was already more pessimistic, cutting its 2026 forecast to 1% in August.

Defence production, public spending and resilient services have kept activity going, but the economy is held back by damaged power infrastructure, labour shortages, weak confidence and renewed logistics bottlenecks. Inflation has started to rise again, reaching 7.7% in July, driven by higher fuel and energy costs linked to the war in the Middle East, the pass-through from a weaker currency and pressure in the labour market.

Russia's renewed campaign against Black Sea ports, shipping and transport infrastructure since July has sharply cut Ukraine's capacity to export grain, iron, steel and other commodities, as the drone war has shifted to crippling ports. The Danube route and the EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes cannot fully replace deep-sea shipping, and their capacity has shrunk further because of low water levels on the Danube and Russian strikes on the railways.

The EBRD expects grain and oilseed exports to fall by 50-60% in the second half of the year, leaving farmers with large unsold stocks and putting storage, liquidity and working-capital pressure on agricultural companies. Exports worth $5bn-5.5bn, equivalent to 2.5% of GDP, may be affected, EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told IntelliNews on the day the report was released.

A prolonged disruption would push up food prices far beyond Ukraine, the bank warned. Wheat prices have risen by more than a third since February to around $7.50 a bushel and are expected to stay high through 2028, a food price shock that feeds more strongly into inflation in lower-income economies.

Neighbouring Poland fared far better in the same report. The EBRD left its Polish forecasts unchanged at 3.5% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027, with investment financed by EU recovery funds and defence spending under the EU's SAFE programme offsetting weaker demand from the euro area, although Warsaw is expected to miss its 6.8% budget deficit target this year.

The EBRD, Ukraine's largest institutional investor, has made €10.8bn available to the country since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, putting money into energy security, infrastructure, food security, trade and the private sector.