Eastern European members of the European Union are facing mounting demographic pressure from population decline, ageing societies and persistently low birth rates, according to new data from the EU’s statistics agency Eurostat, highlighting a widening demographic divide across the bloc.

While the EU’s total population rose slightly to 451mn people on January 1, 2025 – up by around 1mn from a year earlier – many eastern member states continued to lose population over the longer term through emigration, low fertility and high mortality rates, according to Eurostat’s Demography of Europe: 2026 edition.

Over the two decades from 2005 to 2025, the EU’s population grew overall by 4%, but eight member states recorded declines, most of them in eastern and central Europe.

“The largest relative decreases were observed in Latvia (-17%), Bulgaria (-16%), Lithuania (-14%), Romania (-11%) and Croatia (-10%),” Eurostat said.

Romania and Poland recorded the largest absolute population declines in the bloc, both losing around 2mn people over the 20-year period, while Bulgaria lost around 1mn.

The figures underline how eastern EU states continue to struggle with the long-term effects of post-communist emigration, ageing populations and labour shortages even as western Europe increasingly relies on immigration to sustain growth.

Poland, once one of Europe’s youngest societies, is ageing rapidly. Eurostat said the proportion of people aged 65 and over in Poland rose by eight percentage points between 2005 and 2025, the sharpest increase anywhere in the EU.

“On 1 January 2025, there were 99mn people aged 65 years old or more, representing 22% of the total EU population,” Eurostat said.

Across the eastern EU, ageing has accelerated sharply as younger workers continue to leave for higher-paying jobs elsewhere in the bloc. The share of people aged 80 and over has risen significantly in countries including Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Croatia over the past two decades, according to the report.

At the same time, birth rates have continued to fall. “In 2024, the total fertility rate in the EU stood at 1.34 live births per woman,” Eurostat said, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain stable populations without migration.

Although Bulgaria recorded the EU’s highest fertility rate at 1.72 children per woman, eastern European countries continue to experience negative natural population change because deaths far outnumber births.

“The highest negative rates were observed in Latvia (-7.4), Bulgaria (-7.3), and Lithuania (-6.4),” Eurostat said, referring to the difference between births and deaths per 1,000 inhabitants.

Death rates remain especially high across much of eastern Europe. “The highest rates were observed in Bulgaria (15.6 deaths per 1 000 persons), Latvia (14.3) and Hungary (13.4),” the report said.

Life expectancy has improved substantially since eastern countries joined the EU, but significant gaps with western Europe remain.

“In 2024 the life expectancy at birth in the EU was estimated at 81.5 years,” Eurostat said. “The lowest was in Bulgaria (75.8) followed by Latvia (76.4) and Romania (76.5).”

The Baltic states nevertheless recorded some of the strongest improvements in longevity over the last two decades. Estonia saw life expectancy rise by seven years between 2004 and 2024, while Latvia and Lithuania each gained 5.5 years.

A striking gender gap also persists in eastern Europe. Latvia recorded the largest difference in life expectancy between men and women in the EU.

“The life expectancy at birth for women was higher than men for all EU countries, with the largest difference in Latvia (9.8 years; women 81.2 and men 71.4),” Eurostat said.

Migration continues to play a major role in reshaping eastern EU demographics. Although western member states such as Spain and Germany receive the largest numbers of immigrants overall, some eastern countries are now increasingly reliant on inward migration to offset labour shortages and population decline.

“In 2024, almost 6mn people immigrated to EU countries,” Eurostat said, with 74% coming from outside the EU.

Czechia recorded one of the highest shares of non-national immigrants in the bloc.

“The highest share was observed in Czechia (98%), followed by Cyprus (94%), Austria, Germany, Malta and Luxembourg (all 93%),” Eurostat said.

At the same time, Romania, Latvia and Slovakia stood out because most immigrants arriving there were actually returning nationals rather than foreigners.

“In Romania, 64% of immigrants in 2024 held national citizenship, followed by Latvia (61%) and Slovakia (53%),” the report said.

The data reflects a broader trend in eastern Europe of workers returning home after years abroad, often bringing savings and skills acquired elsewhere in the EU. Yet return migration has not been enough to reverse broader demographic decline.

Young people account for a shrinking share of the population in every EU member state, including eastern Europe. “Over the past 20 years, the share of people under the age of 19 decreased in all EU countries,” Eurostat said.

Countries in eastern and southern Europe are increasingly caught between shrinking younger generations and rapidly growing elderly populations, placing pressure on healthcare systems, pensions and labour markets.

Marriage and divorce patterns also highlight changing social trends across the region. Latvia recorded the highest marriage rate in the EU in 2024 at 5.5 marriages per 1,000 people, followed by Romania at 5.3. At the same time, Baltic countries continued to report some of Europe’s highest divorce rates.

Eastern Europe also differs from western Europe in the age women have their first child. “The youngest first-time mothers were found in Bulgaria (26.9), Romania (27.2) and Slovakia (27.4),” the report said. That contrasts sharply with southern European countries such as Italy and Spain, where women increasingly delay childbirth until their thirties.

Despite some economic convergence with western Europe since EU enlargement, the demographic outlook for much of eastern Europe remains difficult.

Low fertility, continued outward migration and ageing populations are expected to weigh heavily on long-term growth prospects, public finances and labour availability across the region.

Governments across Central and Eastern Europe are trying to address demographic decline through tax incentives, family support policies and programmes encouraging emigrants to return home.

Hungary and Poland, in particular, have introduced large-scale family subsidy programmes over the past decade in an effort to boost birth rates, though with limited long-term impact so far.

Meanwhile, labour shortages are increasingly pushing eastern EU states to recruit workers from outside Europe, particularly from Ukraine and Asia.

The data also highlights how immigration is becoming more politically and economically important even in countries that were historically sources of emigration rather than destinations for migrants. Across the EU as a whole, nearly 10% of residents were citizens of another country by the start of 2025.