Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who has ruled the strategically positioned Horn of Africa state since 1999, is expected to readily defeat his only challenger in Friday’s election, and secure a sixth term in office.

Guelleh removed term limits in 2010 and won a fifth term in 2021 with 97%. The 78-year-old leader was able to compete in the April 10 after lawmakers amended the constitution in November 2025 to remove the 75-year age limit.

When asked last May whether he intended to relinquish power, he told Jeune Afrique magazine: “I love my country too much to embark on an irresponsible adventure and be the cause of divisions.”

His sole opponent, Mohamed Farah Samatar, is a former ruling party member whose Unified Democratic Center has no representation in parliament.

Djibouti occupies a critical position at the entrance to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, one of the world’s busiest maritime trade corridors linking Europe and Asia. The country hosts the only permanent US military base in Africa and France's largest base on the continent, generating significant rental income and reinforcing its geopolitical importance. China, Japan and Italy also have troops stationed in the country.

Roughly 12% of global maritime trade passes daily through Bab-el-Mandeb (Gate of Tears) – a maritime chokepoint just beyond Djibouti’s shore barely 30 kilometres wide at its tightest point. With the US and Israel at war with Iran since February 28, and the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, the corridor has come into sharp focus, Al Jazeera writes.

“They thought hard about how to monetise that chokepoint,” said Samira Gaid, a regional security analyst at think tank Balqiis Insights, “and how to go about that whilst not becoming dependent on one state.” Gaid told the Qatar-based broadcaster that the foreign powers based in Djibouti have “enabled” and “empowered” Guelleh “to dominate politics in that country”.

Guelleh has indeed maintained relative stability in the volatile region, positioning Djibouti as a logistics and security hub centred on port services and foreign military partnerships, which underpin a large share of state revenues.

However, critics say this stability has come at the cost of democratic openness. AFP reported in March that former presidential adviser Alexis Mohamed, who resigned in September citing “democratic backsliding,” said he was unable to submit his candidacy, claiming he lacked “security guarantees” to return from abroad.

Djibouti ranks 168th out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders press freedom index, while the International Federation for Human Rights has said elections in the country “are not free.” Critics cited by AFP called Friday’s vote a “masquerade” with a "foregone conclusion." 

Economically, Djibouti has recorded steady growth driven by its role as a regional logistics hub, with real GDP expanding by around 6–7% annually in recent years, supported by port activity, trade services and infrastructure investment. The economy is closely tied to neighbouring Ethiopia, which relies heavily on Djibouti’s ports for maritime access.

Despite this growth, structural challenges persist. Public debt remains elevated at around 60–70% of GDP following years of infrastructure-led borrowing, much of it linked to Chinese-financed projects. While debt levels have stabilised, servicing costs continue to weigh on fiscal space.

Unemployment remains high, particularly among youth, with estimates often exceeding 25%, reflecting limited job creation outside the capital-intensive logistics and services sectors. Poverty and inequality also remain significant concerns, with growth not fully translating into broad-based employment gains.

Inflation has remained relatively contained but vulnerable to external shocks, particularly food and fuel prices, given Djibouti’s heavy reliance on imports. The government has sought to balance investment-led growth with fiscal consolidation, while maintaining its position as a key trade and security node in the Horn of Africa.