Cuba has only 15 to 20 days of oil left according to Kpler, and faces economic collapse without fresh supplies, as Trump turns the screws in the latest attempt at regime change in his Western hemisphere sphere of influence.

Crude exports to Havana are drying up fast, according to Kpler, as the US tightens a blockade of Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba and puts pressure on Mexico to halt supplies, the Financial Times reports.

Cuba is facing a deepening energy crisis that could cause the economy to collapse that has already triggered widespread power outages and raising fears of rationing and political instability.

The island is almost wholly dependent on Venezuela for oil but has received just one delivery of oil this year with no prospects for more following Operation Maduro on January 3 that decapitated the government and saw the US take control of the country’s oil sector.

As part of the regime change in Venezuela, US companies received 30mn-50mn barrels of oil that were handed over to big donors to the Trump administration in a deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

The US has built up its naval forces in the Gulf of Mexico and is threatening to impose a total naval blockade as part of an implicit attempt to change the Cuba regime. For the moment, the Trump administration has accepted a technocratic Venezuelan government, headed by the former Vice President Delcy Rodrigues, who has been made president of the interim government. Now the White House seems to be turning its attention to Cuba.

The shock move to topple the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is now awaiting trial in New York on “narco-terrorism” charges, is part of US President Donald Trump’s upgraded “Donroe Doctrine” that was spelled out in the National Security Strategy (NSS) released in December. That reintroduces the idea that the Western Hemisphere “belongs” to the US and leaves the Eastern Hemisphere to the likes of China and Russia.

Now in control of Venezuela, it appears that the White House would like to see the regime in Cuba change that has been under US embargo since 1962. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the first US-born Cuban to hold the post, has called the regime in Cuba a “brutal dictatorship” and linked the government to regional instability.

In comments to Congress’ Committee on Foreign Policy on January 28, Rubio said: “We would love to see the regime [in Cuba] change. That doesn’t mean we are going to make it change, but we would love to see it change. There is no doubt about the fact that it would be of great benefit to the United States if Cuba was no longer governed by an autocratic regime.”

While experts say that it is unlikely that the US will mount another military invasion or special military operation, engineering an economic collapse is well within its capabilities. This policy fits with Trump’s increasingly aggressive use of economic and military tools to engineer regime change in countries he sees as rivals or foes. Currently the US is also massively building up a “massive armada” of naval power in the Persian Gulf and contemplating large-scale strikes on Tehran to “help” the mass protests there topple the Khamenei regime.

"A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose," Trump said in a post on Truth Social on January 28. The fleet, headed by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, is larger than the one Trump sent to Venezuela, according to the president. "Like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary," Trump said.

The protests that have swept Iran since December 28 and exploded on January 8 to every region and city in the country were brought about partly by Western economic sanctions that saw the rial collapse and the ensuing economic hardships. Cutting Cuba off from its oil supplies could have much the same effect.

“They have a major crisis on their hands if more deliveries do not arrive in the coming weeks,” Jorge Piñón, a Cuba energy expert at the University of Texas, told the FT.

Cuba received just 84,900 barrels of oil in 2026 as of late January, Kpler, reports, all from a single Mexican tanker that arrived on January 9. That translates to just over 3,000 barrels per day, down sharply from an average of 37,000 b/d in 2025, which is still less than the 100,000 b/d the island needs to meet domestic demand, the FT reports. Without new deliveries, Cuba now has enough oil in storage to last for two or at most three more weeks before running out, say experts. Inventories were estimated at 460,000 barrels at the start of the year.

Trump claimed this week the Cuban regime was “very close to failing” and vowed there would be “no more oil” going to Havana following the US capture of Maduro.

The US has been squeezing supplies to Cuba since November when it tightened its embargo on Venezuela oil exports to the island state as it built up its flotilla in the Caribbean ahead of the military operation in the first week of this year. Kpler’s data shows zero deliveries from ENZ to Cuba since Maduro’s arrest, down from 46,500 b/d in December.

Mexico also supplies Cuba and became the main source of oil at the end of last year but is now caught between pressure from Washington and its long-standing ties with Havana.

Trump posted on January 11 that "there will be no more oil or money going to Cuba - zero," whilst US Navy surveillance drones have conducted repeated flights over Gulf of Mexico shipping routes since December.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has not denied reports that a planned January shipment was shelved under US pressure, calling it a “sovereign decision,” the FT reports.

On January 28, she clarified that oil exports to Cuba are conducted via Pemex contracts or humanitarian aid and as bnl IntelliNews reported, in an act of defiance, said on January 21 that deliveries of oil will continue for the meantime, despite US pressure.

"Very little of the crude oil produced in Mexico is sent to Cuba, but it is a form of solidarity in a situation of hardship and difficulty," Sheinbaum stated last week, "That doesn't have to disappear."

Mexico exported MXN10bn ($558mn) in petroleum products to Cuba during 2025, quadrupling the total sent throughout Enrique Peña Nieto's six-year Mexico presidency from 2012-2018.

Russia has also supplied Cuba in the past, but the last delivery was recorded arriving in October. Russia’s interior minister began a visit to Cuba on January 20 in a show of solidarity, but the Kremlin remains powerless to provide anything more than moral support. Algeria also supplies Cuba, but has not made a delivery since February 2025, according to Kpler.

Cuba’s economy has already been weakened by the regional instability in Trump's campaign against Venezuela. Declining tourism, sugar production, and chronic inflation, has robbed the government of some of its main foreign exchange earnings and expenditure power. Cuba generated only about half of the electricity required to meet domestic demand in 2025 and increased power cuts loom as energy supplies evaporate. State utility Unión Eléctrica said 101 distributed generation plants were offline due to fuel shortages, removing 927MW from the grid. A lack of lubricants has cut a further 156MW, according to official figures.

Cuba's leadership remains defiant. President Miguel Díaz-Canel posted on X on January 28: “The harshness of these times and the brutality of the threats against Cuba will not hold us back.” Demonstrations have begun, but so far the population is supporting the embattled government.

To avoid rationing, Cuba has begun sourcing fuel from Africa as traditional oil supplies from Venezuela decline sharply, deepening pressure on the island’s power system, according to satellite-tracking data. The tanker Mia Grace departed Lomé in Togo on January 19 and is due to reach Havana on February 4, the Colombian outlet Semana reported on January 27.

The government has also launched military drills to prepare for a possible Maduro-style US special military operation against the island. Cuba’s National Defence Council approved plans to shift the country into a “state of war” on January 20 in the face of rising tensions with the US.