Pakistan’s long-standing refusal to recognise Israel is facing mounting geopolitical pressure, as its recent mediation in Gaza and engagement with a proposed international peacekeeping mission have prompted renewed efforts by Washington and Gulf states to expand the Abraham Accords into South Asia.

“Islamabad has maintained its position since 1948, tying recognition of Israel to the establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital,” said Umair Jamal in a note, a South Asia analyst at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. “But recent developments suggest that position is being tested like never before.”

Pakistan’s role in facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza in September 2025, alongside Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, raised its diplomatic profile with the US and its Gulf partners. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s participation in the multilateral summit hosted by US President Donald Trump marked an unprecedented entry into Arab-Israeli diplomacy.

This was followed by a conditional offer from Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to contribute Pakistani troops to a United Nations-mandated International Stabilisation Force in Gaza.

“Our job is peacekeeping, not peace enforcement,” Dar stated, stressing that the mission’s objective would be limited to humanitarian protection and reconstruction.

These moves come amid intensifying economic pressure in Pakistan, including a foreign debt burden exceeding $130bn.

“Pragmatism is beginning to influence foreign policy in Islamabad, even as public opinion remains firmly against normalisation without a Palestinian state,” Jamal noted.

The prospect of Pakistan joining an expanded Abraham Accords has drawn encouragement from both Saudi Arabia and the US, though both have stressed the need for tangible progress toward a two-state solution.

“Washington sees Pakistan as a crucial link in extending the Abraham Accords beyond the Gulf, particularly in the direction of Central Asia,” Jamal said.

Kazakhstan’s accession to the Accords in November 2025 marked a shift in regional alignment. The inclusion of Pakistan would unlock expanded trade corridors, notably through the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which incorporates Israeli infrastructure and bypasses traditional chokepoints such as the Suez Canal.

“Pakistan could become the eastern flank of IMEC, with its ports at Gwadar and Karachi providing Central Asia with direct access to global markets,” Jamal added.

The integration of Pakistan into these initiatives could support diversification efforts by Central Asian states, reducing their dependence on Russian and Chinese infrastructure.

“If executed carefully, this could be transformative for the region’s landlocked economies,” Jamal observed.

Security cooperation is also expanding. Pakistan’s recent Article 5-like defence pact with Saudi Arabia, signed in September, includes provisions for mutual defence and joint deterrence. It reflects converging interests in regional stability, including in Gaza, Afghanistan and along Central Asia’s southern rim.

“The model of Islamic peacekeeping forces could evolve into something akin to a C5+1 framework for managing Afghanistan’s borders,” Jamal said.

Nonetheless, obstacles remain. Domestic opposition in Pakistan to recognising Israel is entrenched, and any perceived capitulation could trigger political unrest. “Public opinion is a major constraint. Islamabad will not move without credible guarantees of Palestinian sovereignty,” said Jamal.

Geopolitical friction could also intensify. Iran, which opposes both Israel and IMEC, may seek to disrupt emerging corridors. China and Russia, whose infrastructure loans to Central Asia exceed $25bn, are expected to resist initiatives that dilute their regional influence.

Yet Jamal argues the potential upside remains significant. “If linked to genuine reforms in Palestinian governance and sustained by tangible US incentives—such as security guarantees or major non-Nato ally status—Pakistan’s participation could catalyse long-delayed projects, like the Trans-Afghan railway.”

The Abraham Accords may yet extend their reach. “Whether or not Pakistan formally joins, the conversation has shifted. The intersection of diplomacy, economics and security now places Central Asia at the heart of a broader integration strategy.”