Climate change is increasingly acting as a threat multiplier in the Lake Chad Basin, exacerbating insecurity, displacement and competition over natural resources across the central and western African region, according to research by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).

In their June 2026 Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet, the institutes warn that the region's persistent insecurity must be understood against a backdrop of climate and environmental change, arguing that rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, droughts and floods are amplifying existing economic and social problems rather than replacing them as primary drivers of conflict.

"The ongoing insecurity in the Lake Chad region—which intersects Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria—cannot be understood in isolation from climate and environmental change," the report says. "Climate change-related stressors—such as increasingly variable precipitation and drought—contribute to existing tension and conflict between different communities by exacerbating scarcity of natural resources, including land, water and food."

Climate pressures compound insecurity

The Lake Chad Basin is home to between 45mn and 50mn people, many of whom rely on rain-fed agriculture, fishing and livestock herding. According to the report, 7.4mn people faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2025, while 3.25mn people were internally displaced in 2026. The four countries bordering the lake collectively hosted around 6.5mn affected people, including internally displaced persons, returnees and refugees.

The region has witnessed repeated attacks by paramilitary groups, abductions and displacement of residents, forcing thousands to flee their homes and to depend on humanitarian assistance.

Average temperatures in the region have already risen by around 1°C since the 1960s, and climate models suggest warming could reach 4.4°C by the end of the century under high-emissions scenarios. SIPRI and NUPI researchers warn that increasing climate variability is making rainfall less predictable and intensifying floods and droughts, disrupting agricultural cycles and increasing livelihood pressures.

"The Lake Chad region is highly vulnerable to accelerating climate change, which increases risks of erratic weather events and less predictable seasonal weather patterns," the report states.

Livelihood collapse and rising tensions

The report identifies livelihood disruption as one of the main channels through which climate change contributes to instability. Farmers, fishers and pastoralists depend heavily on water availability and seasonal rainfall, making them vulnerable to prolonged droughts, floods and desertification.

"Livelihood disruption acts as a primary pathway linking climate change to peace and security risks," the authors write. Erratic rainfall and flooding undermine agriculture and fisheries, while desertification and declining productivity heighten tensions and increase vulnerability to criminal networks and extremist recruitment.

Fishing, once a major source of income, has been particularly affected by environmental changes and insecurity. Around 5mn households continue to rely on fisheries for income and nutrition, but stocks and access have been undermined by a combination of climate pressures, population growth and conflict.

Population growth and increasing livestock numbers have intensified competition over shrinking grazing areas and cropland. The report notes that climate variability has contributed to violent clashes between farmers and herders and has exacerbated disputes between host communities and displaced populations.

Extremists exploit natural resource economy

The report highlights how armed groups have become embedded in the region's natural-resource economy. Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) derive income from taxes imposed on farmers, fishers and livestock owners and increasingly participate in illicit activities.

"Extremist groups are materially sustained in part by their deep entrenchment in the region's natural resource economy," the report says.

According to the authors, ISWAP earns more than $191mn annually, mainly from levies imposed on fishers and cattle owners using islands within Lake Chad. Armed groups are also involved in charcoal production, wildlife trafficking and artisanal gold mining, with smuggling networks moving illicit commodities across borders.

This week, troops of Nigeria's Joint Task Force (North East), Operation Hadin Kai (OPHK), rescued 47 persons, mostly women and children, who were held captive by Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgents in Kukawa Local Government Area of Borno State. The Nigerian military said the victims were rescued from Kangarwa village in the Lake Chad region following sustained ground and air offensives against insurgent enclaves.

According to the Nigerian military, the latest rescue demonstrates ongoing efforts not only to weaken insurgent groups operating in the region but also to secure the freedom of civilians abducted during attacks on communities across the region.

For more than a year, ISWAP has also been exerting pressure on communities and military positions in northern Cameroon’s Darak district, notes the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Africa’s leading multidisciplinary human security organisation, in an assessment in line with the Scandinavian institutes' research.

ISWAP’s target area for expansion covers at least three districts strategically important to local and national economies. Their “fish-rich waters and fertile land have become especially valuable as Lake Chad shrinks, as evidenced by a major border dispute between Cameroon and Nigeria from 1994 to 2002,” the think tank notes.

“The group aims to extend its control beyond the Tumbuma Mantiqa region in northeast Nigeria, which serves as both a useful hideout and a fundraising hub,” according to an ISS update published on June 15.

“ISWAP subjects locals to its ‘laws’, such as forcing them to pay ‘tax’ as a sign of allegiance and to provide the group with an income. And as part of their efforts to disrupt these income-generating activities and ISWAP’s movements, security forces physically abuse residents for ‘collaborating’ with the insurgents, and confiscate their property, such as canoes and phones.”

Security spending outpaces adaptation

The SIPRI and NUPI researchers warn that the region suffers from what they describe as a "security-adaptation imbalance". Military and stabilisation efforts have expanded over the past decade, but climate adaptation and livelihood programmes have lagged behind.

"The region is characterized by a security-adaptation imbalance, where stabilization efforts have outpaced climate-security risk reduction," the report states. "Livelihood-support initiatives and climate change adaptation remain critical gaps in translating stabilization gains into durable peace."

Local communities often rely on traditional leaders and informal mechanisms to resolve disputes over land and water. Despite recurrent tensions, violence is frequently prevented through customary mediation practices that retain strong cultural legitimacy.

Call for integrated response

The authors urge the United Nations, donor countries and regional organisations to maintain funding for climate-sensitive peacebuilding initiatives, including the Lake Chad Basin Commission's Nexus Funding Facility, the UN Development Programme's Regional Stabilization Fund and the World Bank's PROLAC programme.

They also recommend stronger regional early-warning systems and the integration of climate considerations into national development plans and adaptation strategies.

"Beyond humanitarian needs, the region's national governments should adopt conflict-sensitive National Development Plans, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)," the report says.

The findings underscore growing concern among international organisations that climate change, population growth and fragile governance are combining to create a prolonged cycle of instability in one of Africa's most vulnerable regions. The authors argue that without greater investment in resilience and livelihoods, security gains achieved through military operations may prove difficult to sustain.