China sent only a military attaché to the region’s main defence gathering in Cebu, then blamed its Philippine hosts for obstructing Chinese participation.

Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defence, told a regular briefing that the Philippines, as this year's chair of the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus), had let some politicians abuse their offices to hinder Chinese attendance, CGTN reported on October 29. That, he said, broke with the bloc's habit of reaching decisions by consultation and would erode trust among its members.

Defence Minister Dong Jun stayed at home. Senior Captain Yang Lei, China's defence attaché in Manila, represented Beijing at the 13th ADMM-Plus session on October 29. The draft’s claim that this was China’s thinnest presence since the forum launched in 2010 remains unverified. Defence Undersecretary Ignacio Madriaga received him, while Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, who chaired the meeting, greeted other delegations himself. An undersecretary meeting an attaché was "more than courteous", Teodoro said, according to the Daily Tribune.

Beijing presents itself as the guardian of "ASEAN centrality" while lecturing the bloc's chair on how ASEAN ought to work, and the contradiction did not escape Teodoro. "So it is China's position, it is not Asean's position," he told reporters after the meeting. "No country has the right to characterise Asean processes except Asean member countries."

Other ministers got on with business. They adopted five new initiatives at the 20th ADMM, among them exchanges between emerging defence leaders and work on chemical, biological and radiological threats, and marked the forum's 20th anniversary with a "Manila Joint Declaration". The Philippines and India agreed to co-host a maritime security conference in 2027.

Zhang's briefing also touched on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's warning that a mistake by a single fisherman or soldier could set off an escalation at sea, and on his call for progress on a South China Sea Code of Conduct. Beijing, Zhang said, would keep working with ASEAN to speed those talks up while defending its territorial claims. The talks have run since a non-binding declaration on conduct was signed in 2002, which leaves the promise of speed sounding thin.

The more consequential conversation in Cebu took place a day earlier. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Teodoro on October 28 that Washington would raise its security cooperation funding to modernise the Armed Forces of the Philippines and improve interoperability "along the First Island Chain", the arc running from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, Philstar reported, citing a readout from what the Trump administration now calls the Department of War. No sum or timetable was given. The two also agreed an "alliance command and control modernisation sprint" and welcomed investment in storage and infrastructure at sites covered by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

Manila needs the help. Its proposed 2027 budget gives the Revised AFP Modernisation Program PHP50bn ($785mn), up from PHP40bn this year, which is less than 40% of the PHP126.97bn the Department of National Defense asked for in August. That gap is separate from the Foreign Military Financing approved by the US Congress, which allows Manila up to $500mn a year from 2026 to 2030 plus as much as $1bn in direct loans.

Every Chinese snub makes the case for closing that gap easier to sell at home. On the day Yang Lei sat in for his minister, Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian was arguing for more military money at a hearing on the defence budget. "Our geopolitical situation in the region and around the world is changing very quickly," he said, according to his office.

Teodoro was equally unapologetic about the US Typhon missile system on Philippine soil, saying no ASEAN member had objected publicly and calling the build-up an internal matter. He also cited the 2016 arbitral award that rejected China's sweeping maritime claims. Tension at sea has not eased since a naval stand-off near Scarborough Shoal in June.

Chinese pressure has already pushed Manila into a quiet realignment with neighbours that share its worries about Chinese power at sea including Japan and Taiwan.