What kind of autocracy will take shape in Kyrgyzstan now that President Sadyr Japarov has purged co-ruler Kamchybek Tashiyev and his allies?

“Today, Japarov appears to be on the brink of achieving what none of his predecessors managed: making Kyrgyzstan a personalist autocracy.” That’s the conclusion reached by Carnegie Russia Eurasian Center analyst Temur Umarov in a commentary on the ending of the five-year-old ruling tandem, craftily engineered by the president while Tashiyev was out of the country in Munich for medical treatment.

“He has learned from the mistakes of previous leaders, sought to broker agreements with his enemies, concentrated power in his own hands, and carried out a symbolic national renewal (including changing the country’s flag and launching a competition to find a new national anthem),” adds Umarov.

There is no doubt that Japarov’s sudden grab for control of the levers of power sent shockwaves through the Kyrgyz Republic.

“Only Allah can separate us,” Tashiyev said of his friendship with Japarov at a 2020 press conference, as noted by Umarov.

Japarov, it seems, has sought to retire his old ally – who ran his own empire within an empire as head of Kyrgyzstan’s GKNB national security apparatus – ahead of his bid for a second presidential term in a poll scheduled for 11 months from now. Will he ultimately be successful?

It’s unclear, says Umarov, writing: “Tashiev might accept his lot for the moment, but that doesn’t mean his supporters and other members of the Kyrgyz elite will simply forget.

“The moment they decide there is an opportunity to renegotiate the status quo, or when Japarov shows weakness, these old grudges will resurface—and life will return to Kyrgyz politics.”

In clearing out anyone who aligned, or even appeared to align, with the alternative power base of tough-talking “People’s General” Tashiyev, Japarov has taken no chances. The purge continued on February 20 when it was announced that Tlek Abdykhalykov, the GKNB’s anti-corruption top dog had been detained and charged with corruption. Details of the case against Abdykhalykov are hard to come by, wrote Azattyk.

Tashiyev by all accounts has temporarily left Kyrgyzstan, with some speculation suggesting he headed for the US. Might he be reorganising for a run at the presidency?

In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, published on February 18, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Edil Baisalov was adamant that he will not attempt a run.

“I strongly believe that President Sadyr Japarov will be reelected and I’m looking forward to the presidential election next January,” said Baisalov.

“There may be some interesting developments and strong contention, but I don’t believe General Tashiyev will run for president, even though many people are urging him to do so. General Tashiyev is a great patriot, and he will not risk the stability of this country. I believe he will endorse President Japarov, as he has publicly pledged on numerous occasions.”

Wishful thinking given the humiliation many observers see Japarov as having visited upon the supposedly ruthless Tashiyev?

One thing’s for sure, those who want to see Kyrgyzstan regain its pre-Japarov reputation as an “oasis of democracy” in Central Asia, won’t see a triumphant return of Japarov’s potential nemesis as an answer to their woes.

As Umarov relates, Tashiyev “had spent years doing Japarov’s dirty work: destroying the political opposition and independent journalism, reining in powerful tycoons, and decapitating once-influential crime gangs. Eventually, though, he was no longer needed”.

There has to be a chance of Tashiyev, provided that his health is in good order, reinvigorating.

Reflecting on his days as an uncompromising security chief, Umarov recounts: “One by one, Tashiev dealt with the regime’s opponents. Younger politicians and civil society activists who put up any resistance, along with those who supported previous presidents, were either jailed or fled abroad. Like a sponge, Tashiev soaked up all the anger about this repression, allowing Japarov to preserve his reputation.

“Of course, Tashiev did not do all of this out of the goodness of his own heart. In return, he was allowed to turn the GKNB into an enormously influential body, which absorbed the remit and budgets of other agencies. In 2022, the GKNB opened as many as fifty new buildings. Over time, Tashiev became ever more ambitious, involving himself in political decision-making across a whole range of issues. He fired government employees and in one case even punched an official.”

Prequel or sequel? Why is it that the story of Japarov and Tashiyev does not yet seem over?