Bolivians are casting their ballots today, 17 August, in an election that could reshape the country’s political and economic trajectory after nearly two decades of leftist rule. More than 7.9mn registered voters are choosing a president, vice-president, 130 deputies and 36 senators in a contest dominated by the worst economic downturn in forty years, deep political fragmentation and intensifying environmental pressures.

Polls Open Under Heavy Security

Polling stations opened at 08:00 local time and will close at 16:00. Voting is compulsory, and authorities have banned private vehicle circulation to avoid disturbances. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has deployed 34,000 polling centres nationwide, supported by 25,000 police officers and military personnel. International observers from the European Union and the Organisation of American States are present to monitor the process, as reported by the Associated Press. The TSE promises that 80% of preliminary results will be released tonight, with the official count to follow within seven days.

In Chapare, the cocalero stronghold of Evo Morales, security forces remain on alert amid threats of road blockades from his supporters. Morales, unable to stand due to term limits, has called for a blank vote and continues to wield influence despite legal proceedings against him, AP also noted.

A Fractured Left

The governing Movement for Socialism (MAS), the dominant force in Bolivian politics since 2006, faces these elections weakened by internal divisions and economic decline. President Luis Arce, blamed for the current crisis, withdrew his candidacy in May. His feud with Morales has split the party and eroded public support.

Two younger MAS figures are running: Eduardo del Castillo, a former interior minister, and Senate president Andrónico Rodríguez. At 36, Rodríguez has sought to distance himself from Morales, promoting “intelligent austerity” and targeting rural voters. Nevertheless, surveys suggest his support remains marginal, reflecting how far MAS has fallen since its peak.

Opposition Candidates Lead

With the left in disarray, the race is led by two conservative figures. Businessman Samuel Doria Medina, 66, and former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, 65, are front-runners according to pre-election surveys by Unitel and Ipsos, cited by RFI. Neither is expected to surpass the 50% threshold, or 40% with a 10-point lead, required to win outright in the first round. A runoff on 19 October is therefore the most likely scenario.

Doria Medina, owner of a cement company and the Burger King franchise in Bolivia, argues for drastic fiscal consolidation. His programme includes eliminating subsidies, closing state enterprises and negotiating a $12bn stabilisation plan with the International Monetary Fund. Economists warn such a strategy could curb deficits but at high social cost. Quiroga, who governed from 2001 to 2002, advocates restoring property rights, opening the economy to trade and reversing socialist policies. Both insist that “shock therapy” is necessary to end shortages and restore confidence, El País reported.

Economic Collapse as Central Issue

Economic concerns dominate the campaign. Inflation hit 25% in July, the highest level in four decades, with food prices rising by more than 30% over two years, according to RFI. The scarcity of fuel, a weakening boliviano on the parallel market, and a shortage of dollars have destabilised businesses and households. The exhaustion of natural gas reserves — once Bolivia’s main source of foreign currency — has crippled the government’s revenue and left public enterprises paralysed.

The collapse of what was once hailed as the “Social Community Productive Economic Model” underpins much of the disillusionment with MAS. Morales and Arce blame one another for the depletion of hydrocarbon resources and the failure to diversify the economy.

Environmental Issues Largely Ignored

While the economy dominates debate, Bolivia faces pressing environmental challenges. According to Mongabay, the country lost 1.8mn hectares of forest in 2024, moving from third to second place globally in primary forest loss, mostly due to fires. Illegal gold mining has proliferated in protected areas, with more than 120 dredges reported in the Manuripi reserve, polluting rivers and harming biodiversity.

Lithium extraction projects with China’s Citic Guoan and Russia’s Uranium One Group have also been criticized for lacking environmental studies and community consultation. At the same time, rare earth mining in Santa Cruz, unauthorised hydrocarbon exploration, and illegal coca cultivation pose threats to ecosystems and indigenous communities. Reports indicate that an environmental defender faces threats or judicial harassment nearly every week, the outlet added.

Despite this, candidates have offered little in the way of clear environmental policy. Analysts warn that whichever government emerges will inherit not only an economic emergency but also an escalating ecological crisis, Mongabay noted.

Regional and International Implications

Observers note that a rightward turn in Bolivia would align it with broader regional shifts, following the victories of Argentina’s Javier Milei and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, AP reported. Tristan Waag, of the Centre for Research and Documentation on the Americas, told RFI that such a result would represent “a complete change of paradigm”, with Bolivia reorienting towards the United States and institutions like the IMF and World Bank, while distancing itself from long-standing allies such as Cuba and Venezuela.

Uncertainty Ahead

With nearly a third of voters still undecided, the outcome remains uncertain. Analysts caution that rural areas — where MAS historically held strength — are difficult for pollsters to measure accurately. The possibility that late momentum could consolidate behind Rodríguez or another outsider remains, as suggested by El País.

As the vote unfolds today, Bolivia faces not only the question of who will lead, but whether its fragile institutions can manage a peaceful transition at a moment of profound social, economic and environmental crisis.