Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) will come to power in the next elections, the party’s leader Ozgur Ozel said on October 25.

Ozel predicted the election win as he gave a speech at the congress of the Social Democratic Party of Switzerland (SP), held in Zurich. Both the CHP and SP are members of the Progressive Alliance. Ozel attends all such congresses held by European peers of the CHP.

Presidential candidate in jail

“I would… like to convey the greetings of our Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor and presidential candidate, Mr Ekrem Imamoglu, and the other mayors unlawfully imprisoned [in Turkey],” Ozel told the congress.

(See the latest on the CHP’s jailed mayors and other judicial operations targeting the party here).

“I believe that our gathering here on the occasion of this congress is invaluable for strengthening international solidarity against the rising authoritarianism in the world,” he added.

Turkish government attacking CHP

“We have a Turkey facing a democracy crisis, where the ruling party is staging an attack against the main opposition party and more importantly against the upcoming ruling party,” Ozel also said.

“On the other hand… while Europe's new security architecture is being built, we have a Turkey that cannot be considered outside this architecture,” he continued.

CHP on course for power

“These two perspectives inevitably trigger a crucial question in the minds of our European friends: Democracy or security?” Ozel also said.

“Those who try to draw a roadmap based on these two interests are forgetting [something]. With tremendous popular support and determination, a government that says both ‘security’ and ‘democracy’, the CHP government, will come to power in Turkey in the first elections,” he added.

“We’re in power in the first elections” (Subheading in CHP’s official statement)

“Dear comrades, we know that the CHP will be the ruling party in Turkey in the first elections [that arrive],” Ozel reiterated.

Surveys and rallies prove it

The CHP’s ranking as Turkey's most popular party in all public opinion polls confirms its claim to upcoming power, according to the party leader.

What’s more, the CHP holds large rallies every week in various cities across Turkey and in different districts of Istanbul. The gatherings serve as more proof that power will soon be CHP’s to claim. Or so the thinking goes.

Realities in the corridors of (no) power

Photo on social media: Ozel (middle) on October 26 waiting in a corridor of Caglayan courthouse in Istanbul together with Dilek Imamoglu (second right) and Ali Mahir Basarir (furthest right, he is Ozel’s deputy chairman in the CHP’s parliamentary group). The waiting took place as Ekrem Imamoglu was questioned in the espionage case that has brought the latest allegations thrown at him.

On October 24, a few hours before Ozel flew to Zurich, the Ankara 42nd (Asliye Hukuk) civil court of first instance decided that Ozel could hold on to his post.

Ozel’s schedule was released a few days before the hearing in Ankara – the sight of it prompted Turks to discuss why Ozel was planning to leave the city on such a critical day. There was speculation that Ozel was informed about the favourable ruling before it was announced.

On the same day, the Istanbul chief prosecutor’s office launched the espionage case against Imamoglu. On October 28, the mayor, already formally arrested in relation to a corruption case brought in March, was arrested for a second time (The fact of it means that if a court hearing finds no need to keep him under arrest in the corruption case, he will remain in jail in relation to the espionage case).

In September, Donald Trump pointed to Turkey’s visiting president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during a press call in the Oval Office, and said: “He knows about rigged elections better than anybody.”

Social democracy, invented by the Germans to eliminate the communism/socialism threat, is a very particular thing. Social democratic parties, including the CHP, are actually rightist.

Throughout their history, they have contributed to the rise of many autocracies, ranging from that of the Nazi regime to that of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP).