Azerbaijan and Georgia have become part of a crucial pathway for air traffic between Europe and Asia following airspace closures caused by escalating tensions in the Gulf.

Air travel across the Middle East has been heavily disrupted since late February as airspace closures across the region – including Iran, Iraq, Israel and parts of the Gulf – have forced airlines to divert traffic around the conflict zone. This has seen an increase in traffic over the South Caucasus, with data from Flightradar24 showing intense movements over Azerbaijan and southern Georgia.

With the partial closure of southern Azerbaijani airspace following a reported drone attack, pressure intensified further on airlines already struggling to navigate aviation disruptions. 

Azerbaijan temporarily shut the southern sector of the Baku Flight Information Region (FIR), forcing international flights to funnel through a narrow corridor across the country’s north. Aviation data shows the strip – roughly 100 kilometres wide – has become one of the few viable transit routes linking Europe and Asia as airlines avoid large parts of the Middle East.

Azerbaijani authorities said on March 5 that drones launched from Iran struck targets in the country, damaging an airport terminal in the exclave of Nakhchivan and injuring four civilians. The defence ministry said four drones had been fired, one of which hit the terminal building while another landed near a school in a nearby village.

President Ilham Aliyev described the attack as an act of aggression and said Azerbaijan’s military had been instructed to prepare a response.

“We will not tolerate this unprovoked act of terror against Azerbaijan,” Aliyev told a meeting of the national security council on March 5.

However, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei denied on March 9 that Iranian forces had launched the strikes on Nakhchivan, suggesting the attacks may have been "staged" provocations. Previously, Iran’s General Staff accused Israel of carrying out a "false flag" operation to damage relations between Muslim nations.

While southern Azerbaijani airspace was closed, the remaining open corridor across the country’s north became a vital corridor for aircraft travelling between Europe and Asia.

Real-time tracking data from Flightradar24 shows dense clusters of aircraft converging along the route as carriers attempt to maintain long-haul connections while avoiding restricted airspace.

Azerbaijan lies to the south of Russia, where Western airlines had already been barred from flying since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In normal circumstances, major Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi serve as key transfer points for passengers travelling between the continents. But widespread airspace restrictions have temporarily upended that model.

Dubai International Airport – typically the world’s busiest for international passengers – was forced to suspend operations for several days after the crisis began last weekend, triggering widespread cancellations by major regional airlines.

Airlines worldwide have been rapidly adjusting their networks in response to the disruption, with major European carriers, including the Lufthansa Group and Air France-KLM, suspending or reducing services to destinations across the Middle East while increasing direct flights between Europe and Asia.

Fitch said the immediate shock to regional aviation since the strikes on February 28 have already been severe, with widespread airspace closures forcing airlines to reroute, divert or cancel services across one of the world’s busiest transit corridors.

The closures have caused severe disruption at airports across the Middle East, leaving thousands of passengers stranded.

Some regional airspace remains open, including routes over Oman and Jordan, but airports there are experiencing heavy congestion as flights are rerouted through the limited corridors still available.

The United Arab Emirates said it was working to establish temporary safe air corridors capable of handling dozens of flights per hour once conditions allow.

The aviation crisis is also affecting global supply chains that rely on cargo shipments. Manufacturers in South Asia quoted by Reuters say shipments of garments destined for international retailers, including suppliers working with Zara owner Inditex, have been stranded at airports in Bangladesh and India after Gulf carriers cancelled flights.