Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev was a no-show at the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit, which concluded on October 30. Aliyev’s snub of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan signals that tension between Baku and Ankara is running deeper than previously believed.

A feud between the two long-time allies, whose relations have often been characterised as “one nation, two states,” erupted in mid-October initially revolving around criticism from Turkish public figures of new regulations adopted in Azerbaijan that curtailed religious expression in public schools, effectively banning the wearing of hijabs.

Erdogan on October 25 fired an aide who initiated the hijab kerfuffle, causing many observers to believe that bilateral relations would quickly get back on track.

But no.

Aliyev’s decision to skip the summit in Ankara shows the spat is far from over. And where it goes from here is hard to say, given the complexity of the underlying issue dividing the two states.

Aliyev’s absence embarrassed Erdogan, undermining his central message of unity among Turkic states. The summit’s theme was: Turkic Century: Unity in Language, Thought and Action. 

In comments to the leaders of other Turkic states at the summit, including the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, Erdogan pointed to the “family photo” of participants taken to commemorate the event, saying it “symbolises both our loyalty to our past and our determination to build our common future together”. 

Such rhetoric rang a bit hollow with Aliyev not in the picture. The Azerbaijani delegation was led by Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, who made no reference to the bilateral spat while praising Turkish hospitality.

Commentaries published in the tightly state-controlled Azerbaijani press indicate that the fulcrum of division between Baku and Ankara is now Israel, not the hijab controversy.

One editorial published on October 29 by Minval indicated that the criticism coming out of Ankara over the hijab issue triggered long-simmering resentment in Azerbaijan connected to Baku’s close strategic relationship with Israel, which supplied military technology, including drones, that helped the Azerbaijani military regain full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Turkey has been a frequent and sometimes fierce critic of Israeli policy in Gaza.

“For the past three years, Azerbaijan has repeatedly become a target, with its cooperation with Israel invariably the main focus of the attacks,” the editorial stated. “Baku is essentially being asked to subordinate its foreign policy to foreign perceptions and expectations.”

The editorial, which can be viewed as reflecting the thinking of official Baku, alleged that Azerbaijan had long been subjected to a “torrent of accusations and humiliation” over its strong relationship with Israel, fuelled by Turkish media and social media. It did not mention Erdogan by name but suggested he was responsible for letting the situation get out of hand.

“Official Ankara intervened too late,” it added. “If the necessary steps had been taken in time, if the authorities had not stood by, the situation might not have escalated so far. But now, an unhealthy attitude and an unfavourable atmosphere have developed in Turkey toward Azerbaijan.”

The Minval piece concluded by affirming that Azerbaijan will continue to participate in the OTS, but emphasised that the group is one of equals, not an entity dominated by Turkey. “The union cannot be sustained solely by shared history and the closeness of its peoples,” it noted. “It requires mutual respect and recognition of the independence of each member.”

Similar takes on the situation appeared in commentaries published by other Baku-based outlets. “The idea that a brother is a sovereign state with the right to make its own decisions has not yet been grasped by everyone [in Turkey],” stated an editorial published by Haqqin.az.

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.