ASIA BLOG: The fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran will boost the rise of Asian business links no end

For almost half a century, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been a source of instability in Asia and across much of the wider world. Tehran’s long-championed mix of ideological zeal and aggressive foreign policy coupled to the unashamed sponsorship of terrorist proxies has long destabilised the Middle East and sent negative ripples of mistrust across Asia.
Because of this, the February 28 attack by Israel and the United States to cut the head off the terror octopus backing Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, with the targeted killing of once supreme leader Ali Khamenei, has brought the Islamic Republic to its knees. Internet links are unreliable, supermarket shelves have been emptied and basic infrastructure is struggling to keep up. Yet while hostilities continue, and elements of the now severely weakened Iranian leadership struggle to remain relevant, it is time to start planning for the future.
As such, while the fall of Iran’s hardline regime has not been fully realised at time of writing, when it does come about, the realignment of regional power across the Middle East will be a blessing upon tens of millions in Iran as well as billions to the east across the rest of Asia. It will be an historic opportunity to reshape Asia’s economic landscape.
Asian economies, heavily dependent on energy imports, stand to gain the most as Iran holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves in the Khuzestan region, and is the second-largest in terms of natural gas deposits - ironically shared with Qatar - one of Tehran's recent targets in the ongoing conflict. These deposits though have never been fully exploited because of sanctions, proxy wars ordered by Tehran, and nuclear brinkmanship that has throttled Iran’s full export potential for decades.
Buyers of crude and LNG in particular, China and India perhaps most prominently, have been forced to pay higher prices elsewhere or receive shipments – as is the case with China – through a shadow fleet. With a cooperative, post-Islamist Iran, however, and oil and gas flows freely leaving Iranian ports, Asian buyers could diversify energy supplies while at the same time reducing costs. That vital maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz would no longer be held to ransom by mullahs in Tehran when they feel like it, would come as a great relief to much of the oil-buying continent supplied by sea and the rest of the world.
Trade prospects are equally compelling. Iran’s geographic position makes it a natural bridge between East Asia and European markets. If freed from ideological obstruction, Asian nations could participate in regional infrastructure projects, in the process reviving trade corridors reminiscent of the Silk Road.
Chinese investment, long stymied by sanctions and risk in the area around Iran could surge, while Japanese and South Korean firms would be able to access numerous new markets as investors, buyers or sellers of industrial machinery and technology. For India meanwhile, a politically stable Iran could potentially smooth access to Central Asia by way of South Iranian ports, thereby bypassing Pakistan’s own long-standing geopolitical bottleneck.
The strategic gains would be even more profound. The Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guards and affiliated terrorist groups have long projected power as seen through a rifle sight across the Middle East, South, and Central Asia. Much of this was achieved by funding extremist groups and in fuelling insecurity. With the Islamic Republic regime dismantled once and for all, states across Southern Asia in particular would see a significant reduction in threats from state-sponsored terrorist cells. Borders would be made safer almost overnight. Domestic insurgencies in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere would be much easier to dismantle.
Yet the transition is not without peril and any sudden regime collapse could lead to a vacuum pulling in violent instability, leftover regime retaliation, and most importantly for the bulk of Asia, disruptions to energy and trade.
Governments across the continent with substantial economic ties to Iran would need to tread carefully at first. Careful diplomacy would be key in supporting reconstruction while mitigating short-term shocks or a return to old ways.
Still, the potential rewards are evident and within grasp. A rebuilt Iran could emerge as a much more responsible regional actor by committing itself to international norms and economic cooperation with nations it now rarely interacts with.
Energy security would improve greatly while trade corridors across South Asia, the Far East and elsewhere could be revitalised.
Asia could finally gain a predictable partner in a region long defined by volatility.
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