Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo will travel to Washington in the coming days for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings, facing mounting concerns over weak foreign reserves and exchange rate dynamics that could complicate approval of the programme’s second review.

Caputo and his team are expected to seek progress in negotiations with the IMF, including the release of further funds under the existing $20bn agreement finalised last year, but officials familiar with the discussions say approval may hinge on securing a waiver for missed targets, particularly on reserve accumulation.

The minister also said on April 13 — a day ahead of the official CPI release — that March inflation would exceed 3%, which would make it the highest monthly reading of 2026.

The IMF has already received technical assessments following a February mission to Buenos Aires, though no formal decision has been announced. Market participants are closely watching whether the United States, a key stakeholder in the Fund, will support Argentina’s case at the board level.

At the centre of the negotiations is the country’s limited ability to build up reserves despite sustained purchases of foreign currency by the central bank.

According to consultancy Invecq, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) bought $5.43bn in foreign currency so far in 2026, including $457mn in a single session, one of the largest daily purchases in recent years. However, reserve accumulation has lagged significantly.

Gross reserves increased by $2.33bn between early January and April 10, while net reserves fell by $865mn over the same period, reflecting outflows linked to debt payments and other obligations.

“The main reason why purchases do not translate into accumulation lies in the fact that the Treasury still lacks access to international credit markets and must therefore service its debt using its own foreign currency,” Invecq said.

Data cited by analysts show the central bank has transferred $3.66bn to the Treasury this year, equivalent to 67% of the foreign currency it acquired in the market. Additional outflows include roughly $1.7bn in net payments to international organisations and a decline in bank reserves.

Using the IMF’s own methodology, which adjusts for its own disbursements and valuation metrics, Argentina’s net reserves are estimated to stand at around -$15.5bn.

The weak reserve position is seen as a key obstacle to restoring investor confidence and regaining access to international markets, a central objective of the government’s economic programme.

Analysts also point to broader macroeconomic challenges, including persistent inflation and questions over exchange rate policy. While the government has maintained a fiscal surplus, concerns remain about declining tax revenues and slowing economic activity.

The Centre for Political Economy Argentina (CEPA) said the current dynamic — where the central bank purchases foreign currency but transfers it to the Treasury — undermines reserve accumulation and contributes to elevated country risk, limiting borrowing options abroad.

The outcome of the IMF discussions is expected to be critical for Argentina’s near-term financial outlook, as the government of President Javier Milei seek to stabilise reserves, contain inflation and sustain its bold economic reform agenda.