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Bulgaria Country Report - August 2014

September 9, 2014
This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Bulgaria for the period of August 6, 2014 - September, 5 2014. The growth momentum of Bulgaria's economy quickened in the second quarter of 2014 as GDP rose 1.6% y/y, up from а 1.2% y/y increase in the previous three months, the statistics office said, confirming its preliminary estimates. In seasonally-adjusted quarterly terms, GDP expanded by 0.5% in Q2, also unchanged from the first estimate. Meanwhile, rising food and regulated prices in July softened Bulgaria's annual consumer price deflation to an 11-month low of 1%. The unemployment rate (age 15 and more) fell by 1.5pps y/y to a nearly 3-year low of 11.4% in the second quarter of 2014, with the number of unemployed declining by 55,500 to 381,800. However, weak revenues and limited access to EU funds boosted Bulgaria's seven-month general budget deficit to 1.4% of GDP, uncomfortably near the 1.8% full-year target. Key points: • Business confidence posts third consecutive monthly decline in August • Public debt y/y growth quickens to 36.4% at end-July • Banking sector net profit drops 39% y/y in Jan-July on surge in Corpbank's impairments • Banking sector assets grow 3.4% y/y in July on higher interbank lending • H1 current account surplus doubles y/y to EUR 262.4mn • New poll shows Bulgaria's centre-right CEDB far ahead of socialist BSP in August
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