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BNE IntelliNews: Ukraine Country Report, November 2016 - November 2016

November 30, 2016
Ukraine’s economy has returned to growth and the list of reforms being put in place is slowly getting longer. The economy expanded by 1.8% in the third quarter and could end this year with about 2% growth. However, that off a very low base after the double digit contractions of the last few years. To put this in context the dollar value of Ukraine’s GDP is about $90bn, which is a tenth that of Russia: Ukraine is a big country with a small economy at the moment. Reforms are progressing and there has been very notable successes in energy tariff realignment and the clean up of the banking sector has been stellar. Also a start has been made on administrative reforms and the establishment of the Anti-Corruption Agency is seen as key. The problem with the latter, and with much of the anti-corruption drive, is it has no teeth so this is at best a half baked change that is a step in the right direction but in of itself will not be sufficient to produce any real impact on corruption. The need for an effective anti-corruption drive has become the overweening demand of Ukraine’s international donors, particularly the IMF that has de facto suspended its standby program until visible progress is made. The conditionality that has been put on releasing IMF tranches has become very strict, but there have been some distributions this year. The lack of visible progress is also impacting domestic politics. The populous has become very disillusioned and the ruling Party of Poroshenko would not even pass the 5% threshold to enter the Rada if elections were held tomorrow. President Poroshenko himself would come fourth in a presidential election, which would be won hands down by former prime minister and populist firebrand Yulia Tymoshenko. Populist rhetoric is increasingly dominating the national debate and Tymoshenko is threatening to undo some of the austerity measures like gas tariff hikes, in her bid to win office. There is a growing danger that the whole reform drive will be derailed in the process. Elections are not scheduled for another two years, but the current pace of reforms are not fast enough to produce tangible improvements by then. If the government cannot win by delivering prosperity it can win by delivering on integrity. However, this also unlikely as there seems to be little real commitment to fighting graft and making root and branch changes to the system that has been built up over the last 20 years. Instead Poroshenko has gone for capturing the existing system and installing his people in key posts. This is the slow way to make reforms.
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