Ukraine had rejected three key points in the White House peace plan, which Russia considered crucial, while Russia has agreed to some of the points included in the 28-point peace plan (28PPP), it was reported on November 26.

Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) has rejected the points relating to Ukraine's renunciation of territories in Donbas and its abandonment of its Nato aspirations, CNN reported. Discussions are ongoing on a US proposal to limit the size of the Ukrainian army to 600,000 troops.

Russia has agreed to "some initial steps" toward resolving the conflict in Ukraine, US President Donald Trump told reporters, as quoted by CNN.

"Well, they're making concessions. Their main concessions are that they're stopping the fighting and not [advancing] any further," the White House chief said.

Trump also confirmed his intention to engage European countries in providing Article 5-like security guarantees for Ukraine that were included in the 28-point plan, as part of the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.

"Europe will be actively involved in this. Europe truly wants this to end, if possible," the White House chief responded to a question about security guarantees in the context of the Ukrainian settlement.

Ukraine’s sticking points

Previously, the US proposed that Kyiv transfer these territories to Russian control as a demilitarized zone. According to a CNN source, "some progress has been made on this issue, but a decision on the substance or wording of the draft proposals has not yet been made."

In Geneva it was suggested that the cap on the army be increased to 800,000 men that would give Ukraine by far the largest army in Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went one step further in her plan, saying there should be no cap at all. While Kyiv has not rejected the cap out of hand, it still wants to amend this cause, Vedomosti reported.

The 600,000 limit was part of the Istanbul peace deal’s “Treaty on Ukraine’s Security Guarantees” that was agreed in principle, but never adopted. One of the provisions would have capped Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000 personnel, according to reports at the time.

The deal also included restrictions on equipment, including numbers of tanks, armoured vehicles, combat aircraft, range of missiles etc. Ukraine’s peacetime armed forces were said to number 250,000, but Russia demanded a reduction to 85,000, while Ukraine was reportedly ready to accept 250,000 in peacetime as a part of that deal. 250,000 men would still give Ukraine the fourth largest army in Europe after Turkey (355,000), France (304,000) and Italy (338,000), but ahead of the UK (184,000) and Germany (181,000).

According to bne IntelliNews’ calculations, given a peacetime Russian force of 900,000 and an attacker/defender death and wounded ratio of 3:1, Ukraine would need around 300,000 to be able to mount a sustainable defence against a second invasion. However, assuming a more realistic death and wounded ratio of 5:1, which has been the case in many of this war’s engagement, the bare minimum of men in Ukraine’s defence force needs to be 180,000 men.

The final point of contention concerns Ukraine's abandonment of its aspirations to join Nato. According to the source, this demand "remains unacceptable."

"Regarding Whitkoff, I can say that a preliminary agreement has been reached that he will come to Moscow next week. He and a number of other administration officials involved in Ukrainian affairs will also be there," Ushakov said.

“There can be no talk of any concessions or retreat on the part of Russia” as part of the peace deal talks, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on November 26, Vedomosti reported.

"Various versions of this plan are a matter of negotiation. There can be no talk of any concessions or any surrender of our approaches to the key aspects of solving the tasks facing us, including in the context of the special operation," he explained as quoted by TASS.

Carrots and sticks

The US 28PPP proposal makes some real concessions for the first time, including the security guarantees that Zelenskiy has been asking for since the start of the conflict. But Trump is also wielding some sticks to persuade both sides to come to the negotiating table.

The US may pressure both the EU and Ukraine by restricting arms sales to Kyiv at the expense of European partners, Christian Melling, a senior consultant at the European Policy Center (EPC), told Politico.

He said the United States could block or suspend arms re-exports, as well as slow deliveries, "overnight." This would impact Kyiv or Europe, and this is "the mood already prevailing in Washington," Politico writes.

On November 26, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that Kyiv would receive approximately $5bn worth of weapons by the end of 2025 under a new European Nato-pays deal, or the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) mechanism, in which Europeans purchase American arms.

The Kremlin is also in the crosshairs with the White House threatening new harsh sanctions. Trump has already imposed his first new oil sanctions on Russia since taking office, which targets Russia’s two biggest oil companies – although those sanctions have not gone into effect yet. Senator Lindsey Graham is also threatening to enact a bill that would impose 500% tariffs on any of Russia’s partners that continue to import its oil.

Abu Dhabi talks

The first meeting between a US and Russian delegation since the peace plan talks started took place in Abu Dhabi between US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s spy master and chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and a Russian delegation on November 25. It did not discuss the Ukrainian peace plan, Russian presidential aide Ushakov told the local press.

He added that representatives of Russian and Ukrainian intelligence agencies periodically discuss "sensitive issues" in the UAE.

Ushakov also said that the mooted 28PPP has not formally been discussed yet in the Kremlin as they wait for the dust to settle and the Western alliance to settle on a final version. There are currently at least three versions in play, the original 28-point peace plan (28PPP), a cut down version agreed in Geneva, 19-point peace plan (19PPP) and an EU sponsored 24-point peace plan (24PPP) version.

And there is now a fourth version. On November 26, Trump announced that the plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict had been reduced from 28 to 22 points. He claimed that the original document was "just a blueprint," a "concept," and not a plan.

"We haven't discussed it with anyone yet because the document requires truly serious analysis and discussion. Some aspects can be viewed positively, but many require dedicated discussion among experts," Ushakov said as cited by Vedomosti.