Retail sales volume in Romania (chart) fell by 9.1% y/y in January, according to data published by the statistics office INS, as households reduced spending amid rising energy bills, slower wage growth and a deteriorating outlook for several social groups. In 2025, the sales edged up a mere 0.2% y/y on average, with the annual growth rate entering the negative area in Q4 (-3.3% y/y).

The decline was mainly driven in January by a contraction in non-essential spending, particularly on non-food goods and car fuels. Food sales, traditionally more stable, continued the mild negative trend observed for about a year and a half, particularly since the VAT rate hike last August.

In seasonally and workday-adjusted terms, retail sales dropped by 3.7% m/m, a contraction close in magnitude to the 4.0% m/m decline recorded in August last year after the VAT rate hike prompted households to advance purchases earlier in the summer and reduce unnecessary spending permanently. The monthly data confirm that spending cuts in January were concentrated in non-food goods and fuels.

Despite the sharp monthly drop, seasonally adjusted retail sales in January were still about 10% above the 2021 average and remained higher than in any month before January 2024. That month marked an unusual episode when non-food sales surged by 8.6% m/m without an obvious catalyst. Instead of reversing quickly, the increase was followed by continued strong growth through 2024, a moderate slowdown in 2025 and a sharp decline in January 2026.

Sales of non-food goods contracted by 11.3% y/y in January and fell by 5.5% m/m. Even so, they remained more than 18% above the average monthly level recorded in 2021, in seasonally adjusted terms.

Food sales proved more resilient, declining by 4.0% y/y and by just 0.1% m/m in January. They were still nearly 5% above the 2021 average level. However, food sales were significantly affected by the VAT increase in August last year, when they recorded a permanent 3.7% m/m contraction and subsequently remained below any monthly reading seen during 2023–2025.

Car fuel sales fell by 13.8% y/y and by 5.8% m/m in January, although they still stood 7.7% above the average monthly level recorded in 2021.