George Simion's hard-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has emerged as Romania's most popular party in current polling, according to Politico, as the country's experiment in pro-European grand coalition government collapses in acrimony — with the far-right now positioned as kingmaker in the EU's sixth-most populous member state.

Simion told reporters this week that a joint Social Democratic Party (PSD)-AUR no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan has secured 251 signatures in the 463-member parliament — comfortably above the 233 needed. "If everything goes according to plan, we will have a vote on May 5," Simion said. "We are voting to stop the sale of Romanians' strategic assets."

The no-confidence motion marks a remarkable reversal. The four-party coalition that brought Bolojan to power in June 2025 was formed specifically to contain the rise of AUR, following the Constitutional Court's decision to annul the first round of the 2024 presidential election amid evidence of Russian-linked interference. The coalition's mandate was to stabilise Romania's finances — which carry the EU's highest budget deficit — unlock €11bn in EU recovery funds, and preserve the country's investment-grade credit rating.

That coalition fractured on April 23 when six PSD ministers resigned, following the party leadership's ultimatum to Bolojan to step down. The Social Democrats accused him of pursuing austerity measures — including public sector wage freezes, spending cuts and a 20% reduction in public administration jobs — that were harming living standards. Bolojan responded by appointing interim replacements from remaining coalition parties and personally assuming control of the energy ministry.

Analysts quoted by Politico said Romania would face "a long crisis" after the vote, which "breaks the pro-European coalition and offers the populist party, AUR, a place at the mainstream table." For the PSD it's a power play and a way to get back in touch with and signal to its former voter base that has migrated toward populist parties.

The collaboration between the PSD and AUR carries its own political risks. It reinforces long-standing accusations that the Social Democrats cooperate informally with Simion's Eurosceptic party, despite repeatedly promising not to do so. Some voters perceive AUR as pro-Russian.

The AUR’s rise is part of a Europe-wide phenomena of the rising popularity of populist parties and the growing euroscepticism-lite amongst member states due to a dysfunctional European economy.

Simion, a self-described admirer of US President Donald Donald Trump's MAGA movement, has called for halting military aid to Ukraine, opposes EU institutional authority, and has promoted the reunification of Romania and Moldova. He is currently barred from entering both Ukraine and Moldova. AUR's stated aim, if the motion succeeds, is to force early elections — a scenario in which current polling suggests Simion would be the principal beneficiary.

Bolojan warned this week that the political turmoil was already damaging investor confidence and threatening Romania's ability to absorb EU structural funds — with a critical August deadline for €11bn in EU recovery money at risk of being missed.