The White House launched Project Freedom on May 4, but US President Donald Trump cancelled it less than 48 hours later in a move that the Iranian press took as a failure and retreat.

The plan was for a military escort operation to take tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and in effect reopen the strait to traffic. It appears to have failed, although the reporting coming out of the region is confused and contradictory.

On May 5, Trump suspended the operation, claiming a “pause” was needed to bring ceasefire negotiations to an end.

Senior US politicians met the press to explain what was going on nad spin the news. The start of Project Freedom means that Operation Epic Fury, which began the war with Iran, has therefore ended, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the cameras.

If it worked or not remains unclear. The US Navy reported that they successfully escorted two US-flagged ships through the Strait, repelling attacks by Iranian missiles, drones, and speedboats—six of which were destroyed. However, ship tracking data and satellite images appear to show that no ships passed through the strait.

Another report from the Wall Street Journal said that there was “panic” in the Pentagon, after an attempt to transverse, the narrow waterway failed, as senior officers didn’t want to report any attacks that might provoke Trump into a more extreme response. Following the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) decision to close the strait on March 2 a few days into the war, the US navy has refused to place any of its warships in the passage because it was “too dangerous to traverse.”

Trump’s decision to halt the operation may be connected to Iran’s retaliation: Iran struck the UAE with 15 missiles and four drones, hitting the oil terminal in Fujairah and other targets. Three people were injured. Schools in the UAE are closed until the end of the week.

The IRGC has also expanded the no-go zone for unauthorised traffic to include the UAE’s port at Fujairah, which is outside the Strait of Hormuz, on the Gulf of Oman, and a vital link to the outside world. The change of boundary was enforced by the missile attack and will reduce what little oil continues to be exported from the conflict zone. A Emiratis oil pipeline that terminates at Fujairah has a maximum capacity of 1.8mn b/d and at full capacity can handle roughly half of the UAE’s current oil production.

Despite his upbeat talk on progress, the Iranian side continues to maintain its maximalist position and strongly suggested that no progress in any sort of talks has been made. A few hours before Trump’s pause was announced, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the US demands to open the strait and halt nuclear enrichment "impossible". According to him, Tehran will not negotiate under maximum pressure.

The US blockade of Iranian ports, however, remains in place.

China dynamic

In the meantime, Tehran is rallying support from its erstwhile allies. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Beijing on May 6 for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which is an Iranian ally and acting as a mediator. The visit is poignant as Trump is traveling to China as well for a summit with Xi next week.

Araghchi’s Beijing visit follows on from a similar trip the foreign minister made to Moscow last week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Both leaders are backing Tehran and supplying it with dual use technology and increasingly military tech as well, but do not want to get drawn into the conflict directly. A situation is emerging that is similar to the Ukraine conflict: Moscow and Beijing are supplying Iran as they don’t want to see it defeated, but at the same time they won’t commit to any direct or overt military aid for fear of sparking WWIII. This has also been the strategy of Ukraine’s western allies in what has been dubbed an “escalation management” policy.

According to reports, Trump may be hoping to persuade Xi to take over the responsibility of ending the conflict as thanks to significant trade and investment ties, Beijing as significant leverage over Tehran. Moreover, China has form in the Middle East, after it already successfully brokered a rapprochement between Iran Saudia Arabia that same them re-establish diplomatic relations after an eight-year break. However, experts say that if this is Trump’s plan it is unlikely to work as Beijing continues to keep the conflict at arms length and has left most of the mediation to Pakistan and Oman, which have both been much more active.

Allies are nervous

From a military perspective, the US is suffering the most from its allies in the region. According to the Wall Street Journal, the UAE alone has received 2,838 missiles and drones since the start of the war—and yet Washington publicly calls Iranian strikes on its territory "low-intensity harassing fire" that doesn't violate the ceasefire.

It appears that, from Iran's perspective, escalation is working because Trump may be too eager to leave the war to retaliate on a large scale.

Military experts interviewed by the Financial Times are unanimous: even if the operation is resumed, it won't solve the problem. A maximum of 10-12 ships can pass through the strait per day, compared to 130 before the war. Insurers won't return until the strait becomes predictably safe, not just navigable on certain days. Oil price fluctuations are already 60% higher than pre-war levels—and it's this volatility, not the price level itself, that's hitting global trade the hardest: if the current turbulence continues, global trade turnover could decline by 1.1 percentage points by the end of 2027.

“Trump is still trapped in his own logic,” The Bell said in a commentary. “He started the war expecting a quick victory, but Iran hasn't capitulated, the Strait has been closed for over two months, ratings are falling, and gasoline prices in the US are rising. Leaving the war without a deal is impossible, but Iran is in no hurry, realizing that time is on its side.”

“Operation Project Freedom was another attempt to create new leverage, but so far it has merely proven a demonstration of weakness: it was rolled back before Tehran could respond diplomatically,” The Bell said.