ED – this is bne IntelliNews' annual OUTLOOK Small Stans & Mongolia 2026. We are making forward-looking assessments for Global Emerging Markets in Emerging Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, drawing on insightful reporting from our bureaus around the world.

What is on the agenda? What are the prospects for economic growth and what problems lie in store in the coming year? A detailed report that covers, business, economics, finance, energy, politics and the major sectors of the most important markets.

Below is an introduction to the report. You can read the full OUTLOOK Small Stans & Mongolia 2026 here.

In Kyrgyzstan, such is the authoritarian control and aping of repressive Kremlin policies exercised by the country’s populist-nationalist president, Sadyr Japarov, he increasingly appears like a Vladimir Putin “Mini-Me”.

Still, Japarov’s Kyrgyzstan is riding an economic boom – its “tiger economy” is partly driven by sanctions-busting exports and re-exports sent to Russia as well as lavish spending on megaprojects – and the country’s leader of five years will be confident of laying a smooth path to re-election in a presidential poll planned for January 2027.

In Tajikistan, leader of 33 years Emomali Rahmon is as iron-fisted as ever. In fact there has been a tightening of his brutal control in the past year, including bitter purges, perhaps as part of Rahmon’s preparations to secure an untroubled succession for his son and Mayor of Dushanbe Rustam Emomali.

Rahmon was lately backed by Putin as “reliable”. Russia has a military base in Tajikistan, but the Kremlin will be wary of getting sucked into conflict on the Tajik-Afghan border, where since November there have been several attacks, two of which resulted in the deaths of Chinese workers.

Last year saw China overtake Russia as Tajikistan’s number one trading partner. The country in 2025 again registered robust growth, but the warnings from international financial institutions that it needs a shift away from an economic model dependent on labour migrants’ remittances are growing louder.

The people of Turkmenistan continue to live under a suffocating regime demanding devotion to the Berdimuhamedov cult of personality, despite hardships caused by tough developments such as the recent ending of the traditional indexation of pension payments.

Very little reliable economic information comes out of Turkmenistan, but it is clear Ashgabat is increasingly worried that Beijing is still the country’s only significant customer for its gas output, especially as Russia is pushing hard for more market share in gas exports to China. Shipping Turkmen gas to Pakistan remains an unrealisable dream due to the security situation in Afghanistan and fraught Pakistani-Afghan relations, but might the “hermit state” finally commit to piping major gas volumes to Turkey/Europe via a pipeline that could be laid across the Caspian Sea?

In Mongolia, the prime minister, Zandanshatar Gombojav, in 2025 survived an attempt to topple him amid ruling party infighting. In November, in a move to ease MPP tensions, a new speaker of parliament, Uchral Nyam-Osor, was appointed. Seen by some analysts as a “next-generation MPP figure” with pro-business views, Uchral could provide a tandem with the PM in the pursuit of stability that would benefit Mongolia’s push to deliver big economic projects.

This year could conceivably bring a clash between the government and Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto. Mongolia wants a better deal on the exploitation of the multibillion-dollar Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine. It has launched public hearings that address the matter.

Mongolia is also in a hurry to end its petroleum products dependence on Russia. Indian companies are building the country its first oil refinery under an accelerated construction plan.

Mongolian economic growth is very much tied to how much coal and other minerals such as copper that the country can export to neighbouring China. Long-term, such an economic model does not look viable, thus analysts are focused on whether Mongolia is making fast enough progress in economic diversification.